FxWirePro: Forex Daily Update

The US dollar index holds above 104.50 despite stable US PCE data. It hit a high of 104.72 yesterday and is currently trading around 104.517.

US Core PCE jumped 0.30% in Feb, in line with the estimate. The PCE excluding food and energy rose 2.8% yoy and Jan core  PCE was revised to 2.9%.

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in  June % increased to 66% from 55.20% a day ago.

 The US 10-year yields declined slightly after the US PCE data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -40.2% from -53%.

Major resistance- 104.50/106

Major support- 103.40/102.70

Apr 1st, 2024, US ISM manufacturing PMI (3 pm GMT)

Apr 3rd, 2024  US ADP Non-farm employment (1:15 pm GMT)

                          US ISM services PMI (3 pm GMT)

Apr 5th 2024, US NFP (1:30 pm GMT)

EURUSD-

EURUSD  trades weak after dismal German retail sales. It fell 2.7% Y/Y in Feb, well below the estimate of 0.80%.

US GDP came at 3.4% in the fourth quarter,  above the estimate of 3.2%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits declined to 210K in the week ending March 23rd, compared to a forecast of 215 K.

 Eurozone economic data today

Apr 2nd, 2024, German Prelim CPI m/m (All day GMT)

                          German final Manufacturing PMI (8:55 am GMT)

Major resistance-1.0880,1.0950

Major support- 1.0760,1.0700

Yen-

The pair trades in a narrow range ahead of US economic data.  Any break above 152 confirms minor bullishness.

Major Resistance- 152,153

Major support- 150,149

Canadian Dollar

The pair formed a triple top around 1.3620 ahead of US GDP.

Resistance- 1.3620,1.3660

Major support- 1.3550,1.3500