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The US dollar index holds above 104.50 despite stable US PCE data. It hit a high of 104.72 yesterday and is currently trading around 104.517.
US Core PCE jumped 0.30% in Feb, in line with the estimate. The PCE excluding food and energy rose 2.8% yoy and Jan core PCE was revised to 2.9%.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in June % increased to 66% from 55.20% a day ago.
The US 10-year yields declined slightly after the US PCE data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -40.2% from -53%.
Major resistance- 104.50/106
Major support- 103.40/102.70
Apr 1st, 2024, US ISM manufacturing PMI (3 pm GMT)
Apr 3rd, 2024 US ADP Non-farm employment (1:15 pm GMT)
US ISM services PMI (3 pm GMT)
Apr 5th 2024, US NFP (1:30 pm GMT)
EURUSD-
EURUSD trades weak after dismal German retail sales. It fell 2.7% Y/Y in Feb, well below the estimate of 0.80%.
US GDP came at 3.4% in the fourth quarter, above the estimate of 3.2%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits declined to 210K in the week ending March 23rd, compared to a forecast of 215 K.
Eurozone economic data today
Apr 2nd, 2024, German Prelim CPI m/m (All day GMT)
German final Manufacturing PMI (8:55 am GMT)
Major resistance-1.0880,1.0950
Major support- 1.0760,1.0700
Yen-
The pair trades in a narrow range ahead of US economic data. Any break above 152 confirms minor bullishness.
Major Resistance- 152,153
Major support- 150,149
Canadian Dollar
The pair formed a triple top around 1.3620 ahead of US GDP.
Resistance- 1.3620,1.3660
Major support- 1.3550,1.3500
