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Fed Hike Aftermath Series: Key comments from Robert Kaplan and dashboard update

Speaking to CNBC on Tuesday, the Dallas Federal Reserve president casts some doubts over the Trump administration’s 2 percent growth objective. He expects the growth to continue on the current path of 2 percent, not 3 percent. He explained what drives GDP growth: "Two things drive GDP: growth in the labor force and growth in productivity……..The problem is labor force growth is very sluggish. And my own judgment and our economists at the Dallas Fed think it's going to continue to be sluggish the next 10 years because the population is aging and labor force growth therefore is slowing." He added that the removal of accommodation should be done gradually and patiently. However, He still forecasted two more rate hikes for 2017 plus a beginning to reduce Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.

His comments do not change our dashboard focusing on the June rate decision much as he hasn’t changed his interest outlook despite some warnings about the economy. The dashboard currently looks like,

Doves: Neel Kashkari, and Charles Evans

Hawks: Patrick Harker, William Dudley, and Robert Kaplan, and Lael Brainard

Unknown: Stanley Fischer, Jerome Powell, and Janet Yellen

Pls. note that Daniel Tarrullo has resigned and the position is yet to be filled.

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