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After disappointing payroll number on Friday, which showed headline gains of just 38,000, market participants rolled back their expectations for future hikes from U.S. Federal Reserve. Last two month’s payroll numbers also saw downward revisions in tune of 59,000.
Before the payroll report market was pricing 21% chance of a hike in June and more than 50% chance of a hike in July.
Weaker NFP report dealt a severe blow to the expectations.
As of Now,
- Market is pricing just a 4% chance of a hike in June, thanks to British referendum and disappointing NFP.
- Probability of no hike in July is at 66%.
- Likelihood of a September hike currently stands at 46%.
It is not until the November, Market is pricing a hike and that too a feeble one. Fed funds future shows just 51% chance of a hike. December odds look more convincing, with 63% odds.
Chance of a second hike this year has fallen below 20%.
Hence, Dollar is weak and trading around 94 area.
