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European companies are heading into the second-quarter earnings season with improving profit momentum and a broader recovery than many of their U.S. counterparts, according to a new research note from Barclays.
The bank forecasts 13% earnings per share (EPS) growth for European companies in the second quarter, compared with 26% EPS growth expected in the United States. However, Barclays noted that the stronger U.S. headline figure is largely driven by the technology and energy sectors. When those industries are excluded, consensus earnings growth for both Europe and the U.S. falls to roughly 5%, highlighting a more balanced performance across other sectors.
Barclays expects several supportive factors to strengthen Europe's earnings outlook, including stabilizing oil prices, resilient economic activity, and easing foreign exchange pressures. The bank also pointed out that corporate earnings pre-announcements have remained positive for a second consecutive quarter, marking the first time this has happened since 2021.
Looking ahead, Barclays believes Europe’s earnings outlook for fiscal 2026 continues to improve. Earnings upgrades are no longer concentrated in the energy sector but are expanding across a broader range of industries. While the bank projects 12% EPS growth for fiscal 2026—below the market consensus estimate of 17%—it recently raised its own forecast as earnings revisions became more favorable.
The brokerage also highlighted that European equities have underperformed earnings growth this year, leaving stock valuations relatively attractive. This valuation gap could provide investors with some protection against the impact of higher interest rates.
Barclays said investors should closely monitor whether companies benefiting from the artificial intelligence boom can continue to justify their premium valuations during the earnings season. It identified semiconductors, capital goods, banks, aerospace and defense, mining, and energy as sectors with the strongest earnings prospects.
The bank also views the energy sector as an effective tactical hedge amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty, particularly rising tensions between the United States and Iran, which could continue to support oil prices and energy company earnings.
