Market Roundup
•Swiss Mar Unemployment Rate n.s.a. 2.4%forecast,2.4% previous
•Swiss Mar Unemployment Rate s.a. 2.3%,2.2% forecast,2.2% previous
•German Feb Industrial Production (MoM) 2.1%, 0.6% forecast,1.0% previous
•German Feb Trade Balance 21.4B,25.1B forecast,27.5B previous
•German Feb Exports (MoM) -2.0%,-0.5% forecast,6.3% previous
•German Feb Imports (MoM) 3.2%,-1.0% forecast,3.6% previous
•German Feb Industrial Production (YoY) -4.76%, -5.35% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.722% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.815% previous
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.413% previous
•14:00 US CB Employment Trends Index 112.29 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.230% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.125% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Monday as investors awaited the European Central Bank's policy decision later in the week. The base case for the ECB is to hold rates this week and possibly reinforce the possibility of a cut in June. But while the ECB is increasingly confident that inflation is heading back to its 2% target, it has remained vague about further easing.On the data front, German industrial production rose more than expected in February due to the performance of the construction industry, the federal statistics office said on Monday. Industrial production rose by 2.1% compared to the previous month. The euro dipped 0.1% at $1.083025. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0847(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0925(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0819 (9EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0791 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the dollar on Monday, as weak pay figures from recruiters added to signs of a slowdown in Britain's job market. Starting salaries for permanent staff grew at the slowest rate in over three years in March, recruiters said, while spending on temporary workers fell by the most since July 2020.The data from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) may help convince Bank of England policymakers that underlying pay pressures in the economy are easing sufficiently to keep inflation at its 2% target. However, the BoE has been reluctant to put too much weight on REC data in recent months. The pound was last down 0.1% versus the dollar at $1.2626Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2649(April 5th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2705(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2607(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2538(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Monday as investors continued to rein in bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. A much stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report on Friday, which followed solid manufacturing data at the start of the week, caused investors to cut their bets on a June rate cut from the Fed. Investor focus this week will be on the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report on Wednesday, which is expected to show core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, slowing to 3.7% in March from 3.8% the prior month. The U.S. dollar index was little changed at 104.37. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9066(March 27th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9118(Nov 2nd 2023 high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8921(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose towards to 34-year higher against yen on Monday as traders remained on alert for any potential action in Tokyo to support the weakening currency. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Friday authorities will use all available means" to deal with excessive yen falls, stressing Tokyo's readiness to intervene in the market to prop up the currency. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda addressed the country's parliament on Monday, but gave little away on monetary policy and said he had succeeded in adopting a simpler policy framework. The dollar strengthened 0.17% against the yen on the day to 151.895 , putting it within a whisker of its highest since July 1990. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.91(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.86(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.94 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.46(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged up on Monday, led by Germany's DAX, after strong industrial production data from the region's largest economy, though caution remained ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decision later in the week.
At (GMT 12:45 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.33 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.82 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.83 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Monday to hit a record peak for the seventh consecutive session, a move that analysts anticipate could be driven by strong official sector demand from Asia, despite traditional headwinds from a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated interest rates.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,335.70 per ounce as of 1002 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,353.79 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $2,354.70.
