Market Roundup
•German Mar HICP (MoM) 0.6%,0.6% forecast,0.6% previous
• German CPI (MoM) 0.4%,0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
• German Mar HICP (YoY) 2.3% ,2.3% forecast, 2.7% previous
• German CPI (YoY) 2.2%, 2.2% forecast,2.5% previous
• U.K. Feb Construction Output (YoY) -2.0%,-1.0% forecast,0.7% previous
• U.K. Feb Trade Balance -14.21B,-14.50B forecast, -14.52B previous
• U.K. Feb Industrial Production (MoM) 1.1%,0.0% forecast, -0.2% previous
• U.K. Feb Manufacturing Production (MoM) 1.2%,0.1% forecast,- 0.2% previous
• U.K. Feb Industrial Production (YoY) 1.4%,0.6% forecast,0.5% previous
• U.K. Feb Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 0.2%,0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
• U.K. Feb GDP (MoM) 0.1%,0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
• U.K. Feb GDP (YoY) -0.2%,-0.4% forecast,-0.3% previous
• French Mar CPI NSA (MoM) 0.20%,0.90% previous
• French Mar CPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast,0.8% previous
• French Mar French CPI NSA (YoY) 2.30%,3.00% previous
•French Mar HICP (YoY) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast,3.2% previous
•EU Mar Inflation (YoY) 2.10%, 2.70% previous
• French Mar HICP (MoM) 0.2%,0.3%forecast,0.9% previous
•US Mar Import Price Index (MoM) 0.4%, 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Mar Export Price Index (MoM) 0.3%,0.3% forecast,0.8% previous
•US Mar Export Price Index (YoY) 1.4% , -1.2% forecast,-1.8% previous
•US Mar Import Price Index (YoY) 0.4%, 0.3% forecast,-0.8% previous
•US Apr Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0%, 2.8% forecast,2.8% previous
•US Apr Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.1%, 2.9% forecast,2.9% previous
•US Apr Michigan Consumer Sentiment 77.9,79.0 forecast, 79.4 previous
•US Apr Michigan Consumer Expectations 77.0,77.6 forecast,77.4 previous
•US Apr Michigan Current Conditions 79.3, 82.2 forecast, 82.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•17:00 US Apr U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 508 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 620 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dropped to its lowest level in five months on Friday after the European Central Bank signalled it could soon cut rates even with a hot U.S. economy likely forcing the Federal Reserve to hold fire until later in the year . The ECB signalled it was still likely to start cutting rates in the summer, given that inflation has fallen more sharply in the single-currency bloc. The ECB and the Bank of England are predicted to begin reversing their own historically aggressive monetary tightening efforts sooner, in a trend that has weighed on the euro and sterling this week. The euro dropped to $1.0644 and was last down 0.67%, just above that level. It was on track to have fallen 1.5% since Monday, its biggest weekly drop since September 2022.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0797(9EMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0821(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0617 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0584 (Oct 24th 2023 low).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell to a five-month low on Friday even as data showed the British economy was on course to exit its shallow recession, with all major currencies coming under pressure from a dominant dollar.The pound was down 0.48% at $1.249, the lowest since mid-November. It was heading for a weekly loss of 1.1%, after hot U.S. inflation data this week slashed Federal Reserve easing expectations, boosting U.S. bond yields and the dollar. Britain's economic output grew by 0.1% in monthly terms in February, in line with forecasts, while January's reading was revised higher, pointing to an exit from recession in early 2024. Money markets are currently expecting about 52 basis points of interest rate cuts by the BoE this year and they see a 39% chance of the first cut arriving in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2484(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2432(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2400(Psychological level).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Friday as bets the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep interest rates high boosted greenback. A hot U.S. inflation print on Wednesday caused investors to rapidly rein in their bets on Fed rate cuts this year, moving the estimated start date from June to September. Fed officials, by contrast, said on Thursday there was no urgency to ease. Boston Fed President Susan Collins commented that the strength of the economy and an uneven retreat in inflation argued against a near-term push to lower rates. The dollar index rose 0.5% on Friday to 105.82, taking the U.S. currency's weekly gain against a basket of major peers to 1.5%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9145(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9200(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9087 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9058(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Friday as threat of currency intervention by Japanese authorities appeared to keep the yen steadier than other currencies. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said authorities were analysing not just recent yen declines but factors that are driving the moves, and repeated that Tokyo stood ready to respond to any excessive currency swings.Suzuki said finance leaders from the Group of 20 major economies, who will meet in Washington D.C. next week on the sidelines of the spring International Monetary Fund (IMF) gatherings, may discuss currency moves as part of topics for debate. After hitting a fresh 34-year high of 153.32 yen overnight, the dollar stood at 152.19 yen on Friday. The Japanese currency has tumbled almost 8% against the dollar since the beginning of the year Strong resistance can be seen at 153.54(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.62 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 152.43(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks were on track to race ahead of Wall Street on Friday, with exporter shares in high demand as the continent's major currencies dropped against a dollar standing tall on bets the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep interest rates high.
At (GMT 14:35),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.11 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.15 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit a record peak on Friday as investors rushed to safe-haven investments amid Middle East tensions and Chinese economic challenges.
Spot gold was up 1% at $2,397.84 per ounce as of 9:29 a.m. ET (1329 GMT) after hitting a record high of $2,400.35. Prices were up nearly 3% for the week.U.S. gold futures gained 1.8% to $2,414.80.
Oil rose 2% on Friday and was set for a small weekly gain, as tension in the Middle East raised the risk of supply disruptions and offset the potentially bearish impact of reduced expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts this year.
Brent crude futures were up $2.19, or 2.44%, at $91.93 a barrel by 1340 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $2.42, or 2.85%, to $87.44.
