Market Roundup
•EU Apr ECB Interest Rate Decision 4.50%, 4.50% forecast,4.50% previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 214.25K,214.25K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,817K,1,791K previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 211K, 216K forecast,221K previous
•US Mar PPI (YoY) 2.4%, 2.2% forecast,1.6% previous
•US Mar PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.2%,0.4% previous
•US Mar PPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast,0.6% previous
•US Mar Core PPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.270%,5.265% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction5.270%, 5.260% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•23:30 New Zealand Mar Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) 2.5% previous
•23:30 New Zealand Mar FPI (MoM) -0.6% previous
•23:30 New Zealand Mar Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) -1.8% previous
•03:00 China Mar Trade Balance 508.00B forecast,890.86B previous
•03:00 China Mar Imports (YoY) 1.2% forecast,3.5% previous
•03:00 China Mar Trade Balance (USD) 70.20B forecast, 125.16B previous
•03:00 China Mar Exports (YoY) -3.0% forecast, 7.1% previous
•04:30 Japan Feb Capacity Utilization (MoM) -7.9% previous
•04:30 Japan Feb Industrial Production (MoM)-0.1% forecast,-6.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro continued to decline against dollar on Thursday after European Central Bank held interest rates at a record high as expected. The ECB Governing Council, led by President Christine Lagarde, left the main refinancing rate unchanged at 4.5%, as expected.Lagarde emphasized that the ECB is not committing to a specific rate trajectory and that future decisions will be dependent on data.Policymakers consider that the key interest rates are at levels that are making a substantial contribution to the ongoing disinflation process, the ECB said. Future decisions will ensure that its policy rates will stay sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary, the bank added . The euro was last down 0.2% at $1.0716.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0759(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0783(5EMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0719 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0674 (23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dropped to a four-month low against the dollar on Thursday as sterling came under bearish pressure following higher-than-expected U.S. inflation print the day before. That decline came after U.S. inflation which was hotter than expected, and caused markets to push back expectations of the first Federal Reserve rate cut from June to September, sent the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield up by 19 basis points, its most in a day in 18 months, and drove the dollar higher across the board. The pound was down 0.17% on the dollar at $1.2516, its lowest since mid December, extending falls after a 1.1% drop the day before, its biggest one day fall since October. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2563(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2602(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2519(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2500(Psychological level).
USD/CAD : The Canadian dollar weakened to a near five-month low against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as oil prices fell and U.S. inflation data suggested a delayed start to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts . U.S. producer price data for March showed the cost of services rising 0.3% after climbing by the same margin in February. It follows the release on Wednesday of consumer price data that rattled investors.The loonie fell to a five-month low after the Bank of Canada said on Wednesday that a June interest rate cut was possible if a recent cooling trend in inflation is sustained.The price of oil , one of Canada's major exports, settled 1.4% lower at $85.02 a barrel following a major U.S. refinery outage. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3694 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3730(April 12th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3651 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3596 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was flat on the day, but at its highest since 1990 brought intervention fears back as authorities in Tokyo reiterated they would not rule out any steps to deal with excessive swings. Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, warned on Thursday that authorities would not rule out any steps to respond to disorderly exchange-rate moves. Japan intervened in the currency market three times in 2022 as the yen slid toward what was then a 32-year low of 152 to the dollar. The yen is down nearly 8% against the dollar this year, with the currency rooted near 151-per-dollar levels since the Bank of Japan last month ended eight years of negative interest rates. Strong resistance can be seen at 153.36(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.42 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 152.27(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks closed lower on Thursday on inflation concerns and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rate in June. The markets also digested the European Central Bank's decision to hold interest rates unchanged.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.47percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.82 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.27 percent.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday, with tech-related momentum stocks leading the charge, as fresh economic data rekindled hopes that inflation remains in a cooling trend.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.01% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.74% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.68% percent.
Treasuries Recap
Yields on U.S. Treasuries pushed higher with two-year yields breaching 5% for the first time since November before edging down, as investors worried over rebounding inflation after Wednesday's data despite the softer-than-expected producer prices.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 2.2 basis points to 4.582%, from 4.56% late on Wednesday while the 30-year bond yield rose 3.8 basis points to 4.6723% from 4.634%.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 1.7 basis points to 4.9524%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices settled lower on Thursday as sticky inflation dampened hopes for near-term U.S. interest rate cuts, but worries that Iran might attack Israeli interests kept crude near six-month highs.
Brent crude futures settled down 74 cents, or 0.8%, to $89.74 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down $1.19, or 1.4%, to $85.02.
Gold prices firmed on Thursday after softer-than-expected U.S. producer prices data boosted hopes for U.S. rate cuts this year, while persistent geopolitical concerns added to the metal's shine.
Spot gold rose 1.1% to $2,360.52 per ounce, as of 2:15 p.m. EDT (1815 GMT). Bullion prices hit an all-time high for an eighth straight session on Tuesday.U.S. gold futures settled 1% higher at $2,372.7.
