Market Roundup
•Swiss PPI (YoY) (Jan): -2.2%, -1.8% previous.
•Swiss M3 Money Supply (Jan): 1,212.0B, 1,209.0B previous.
• German Current Assessment (Feb): 86.7, 86.1 forecast, 85.7 previous.
•German Ifo Business Climate Index (Feb): 88.6, 88.4 forecast, 87.6 previous.
• German Business Expectations (Feb): 90.5, 90.5 forecast, 89.6 previous.
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.055%,2.040% previous.
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.008%,2.004% previous.
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.027% ,2.026% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•15:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec) -0.4% forecast, 2.7% previous.
•15:00 US Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% previous.
•15:00 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Dec) 0.9% previous.
•15:00 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Dec)-2.5% forecast, -2.5 previous.
•15:00 US Dallas Fed PCE (Dec) 1.50% previous.
•15:30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Feb) -1.2 previous.
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction3.600% previous.
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.500% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 17:30 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Monday after the Supreme Court of the United States struck down most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, a move traders viewed as supportive for global growth. However, lingering confusion over trade policy and rising tensions in the Middle East kept gains modest.The court ruled on Friday that Trump’s sweeping tariffs exceeded his authority. In response, he criticized the decision and announced a blanket 15% levy on imports, while maintaining that higher-tariff agreements with trade partners should remain in place.Beyond trade issues, investors are also monitoring a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East aimed at pressuring Iran over its nuclear ambitions. Markets are additionally focused on Trump’s upcoming State of the Union address on Tuesday for further policy signals. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Monday as traders digested the fallout from the U.S. Supreme Court striking down tariffs and political uncertainty from an upcoming election to fill a parliamentary seat. Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new levy of 15% on all imports after the Supreme Court on Friday ruled against his global tariffs.For the UK, this would be an increase from 10% and renewed tariff uncertainty could weigh on sentiment. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump's sweeping tariffs that he pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies, handing the Republican president a stinging defeat in a landmark ruling on Friday with major implications for the global economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3583 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3512(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped on Monday amid renewed uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. After the U.S. Supreme Court struck down much of Trump’s tariffs, he announced a new 10% global levy, later raising it to 15%, with details on timing, exemptions, and country coverage still unclear.Attention now turns to Australia’s January CPI due Wednesday. Strong jobs data last week lifted expectations of a May rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia to 70%. Inflation is forecast to rise 0.3% m/m, keeping the annual rate at 3.3%, above the RBA’s 2%–3% target range. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7202(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7068(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar fell on Monday as renewed tariff threats from President Donald Trump weighed on confidence in the greenback. Uncertainty grew after the Supreme Court struck down his emergency tariffs. Trump first proposed a 10% global tariff, then unexpectedly increased it to 15%.In Friday’s ruling, the Supreme Court invalidated his broad tariffs enacted under a national emergency law, curbing one of his most controversial executive actions with major global economic implications. The decision sparked concerns that U.S. trade deals could unravel, though senior officials insisted existing agreements would remain in place. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.19(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.98 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.82 (Feb 18th low).
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower in volatile trading on Monday after President Donald Trump announced a new blanket tariff rate, reigniting uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and its impact on global growth.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.34 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.09 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices held near a six-month high on Monday as the U.S. and Iran geared up for a third round of nuclear talks, while fresh uncertainty over U.S. tariffs kept markets on edge.
Brent crude futures were up 9 cents at $71.85 a barrel by 1308 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 15 cents to $66.63.
Gold jumped more than 1% to a three-week high on Monday after the Supreme Court of the United States ruled against President Donald Trump’s tariffs, weakening the dollar and adding fresh uncertainty to trade policy, which boosted demand for the safe-haven metal.
Spot gold was up 1% at $5,152.11 per ounce by 1145 GMT, having hit its highest since January 30 earlier. The metal touched a record high of $5,594.82/oz on January 29. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were up 1.8% at $5,172.80.
