Market Roundup
• German Car Registration (MoM) (Jan): -21.3%, -1.7% previous
• German Car Registration (MoM) (Jan): -21.3%, -1.7% previous
• German Car Registration (YoY) (Jan): -6.6%, 9.7% previous
• Italian Car Registration (MoM) (Jan): 31.4%, -13.0% previous
• French Business Survey (Feb): 102, 104 previous
• UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb): -43, -27 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 US Redbook (YoY) 7.2% previous
•14:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Dec) 0.0% previous
•14:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Dec) 1.3% forecast, 1.4% previous
•14:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Dec): 1.3% forecast, 1.4% previous
• US House Price Index (Dec YoY): 1.9% previous
• US House Price Index (Dec): 439.3 previous
• 15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence (Feb): 87.4 forecast, 84.5 previous
• 15:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index (Feb): -8 forecast, -6 previous
• 15:00 US Richmond Services Index (Feb): -3 previous
• 15:00 US Wholesale Inventories (Dec MoM): 0.2% previous
• 15:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (Feb): -5 previous
• 15:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (Dec MoM): 1.3% previous
• 15:30 US Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Feb): 7.8 previous
• 15:30 US Texas Services Sector Outlook (Feb): 2.7 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Tuesday as markets weighed the fallout on global trade from renewed turbulence over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff regime.Washington's latest tariff threats are clouding the outlook for global trade, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump's use of a 1977 emergency law to impose tariffs exceeded his authority. Euro zone inflation and the European Central Bank's interest rate policy remain in a "good place," ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday, repeating her long-standing guidance, which signals that policy change is not being considered..The euro rose 0.07% at $1.1793, while the yen JPY= weakened 0.03% against the greenback to 154.71 per dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Tuesday as traders awaited testimony from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and monitored potential fallout from new U.S. tariffs.Bailey is expected to address parliament's Treasury committee later in the day, where he may offer more insight into his decision to vote to leave rates unchanged at the BoE's meeting earlier this month.The Monetary Policy Committee held policy after a narrowly split vote. Markets show traders think the central bank will cut rates twice this year to take the benchmark rate to 3.25%.Investors are also contending with uncertainty over U.S. tariffs. An initial 10% tariff came into effect at a minute past midnight on Tuesday, according to a Customs notice. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3583 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3512(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Tuesday as investors brace for upcoming inflation data expected to reinforce a hawkish policy outlook.January’s CPI report, due Wednesday, is projected to show annual inflation edging down to 3.7% from 3.8%, with core inflation unchanged at 3.3%.The central bank’s head of economic analysis on Tuesday reiterated concerns about pockets of persistent inflation, while signaling the possibility of eventually moving to a monthly core inflation gauge for policy decisions. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock will have an opportunity to respond to the January CPI data when she speaks at a Melbourne University event on Wednesday evening. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7202(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7068(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed on Tuesday as yen dipped as investors reassessed Japan’s fiscal health and pushed back bets on a Bank of Japan rate increase .Investors remain uneasy about Japan’s fiscal outlook as expectations grow that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will unveil additional stimulus measures to support the economy. The yen saw sharp spikes on three occasions in January, with the biggest moves coming after reports of an unusual rate check by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as the currency weakened toward the psychologically significant 160 level.The yen surged over 1% to a three-month high of 152.10 per dollar after the rate checks often seen as a precursor to official intervention. It stood around 154.60 in Asia on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.10(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.23(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.98 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.82 (Feb 18th low).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Tuesday as trade uncertainty kept investors cautious, while banks fell following a Wall Street selloff linked to renewed AI-disruption fears on the New York Stock Exchange.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.07percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.21 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell more than 1% on Tuesday, pulling back from a three-week high as a stronger dollar and profit-taking weighed, while investors awaited clarity on tariff plans from Donald Trump.
Spot gold dropped 1.1% to $5,174.68 per ounce by 1158 GMT, snapping a four-session winning streak. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were down 0.6% at $5,193.80.
Oil prices hovered near seven-month highs on Tuesday, with traders assessing risks to supply from any military escalation as another round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks loomed.
Brent crude futures were up 8 cents, or 0.1%, at $71.57 a barrel at 1251 GMT, while U.S. crude futures climbed 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $66.49 a barrel.
