Market Roundup
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Feb) 3.50%, 3.50%forecast, 3.50% previous
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.00%, 3.00% forecast, 3.50% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•07:45 French Business Survey (Feb)104 forecast,105 previous
•11:00 China FDI (Jan)-9.50% previous
•11:00 UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb) -26 forecast,-17 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Tuesday as markets weighed the fallout on global trade from renewed turbulence over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff regime.Washington's latest tariff threats are clouding the outlook for global trade, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump's use of a 1977 emergency law to impose tariffs exceeded his authority.On the U.S. monetary front, Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 95.5% probability of rates remaining on hold at the next two-day meeting on March 18, little changed from a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was flat at 97.69.The euro rose 0.07% at $1.1793, while the yen JPY= weakened 0.03% against the greenback to 154.71 per dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Tuesday as dollar recovered in aftermath of renewed tariff anxiety. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday warned countries against backing away from recently negotiated trade deals with the U.S. after the Supreme Court struck down his emergency tariffs, saying that if they did, he would hit them with much higher duties under different trade laws.Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he was open to leaving interest rates on hold at the March meeting if upcoming February jobs data indicated the labour market had "pivoted to a more solid footing" after a weak 2025.Markets currently expect three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3583 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3512(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Tuesday as investors brace for upcoming inflation data expected to reinforce a hawkish policy outlook.January’s CPI report, due Wednesday, is projected to show annual inflation edging down to 3.7% from 3.8%, with core inflation unchanged at 3.3%.The central bank’s head of economic analysis on Tuesday reiterated concerns about pockets of persistent inflation, while signaling the possibility of eventually moving to a monthly core inflation gauge for policy decisions. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock will have an opportunity to respond to the January CPI data when she speaks at a Melbourne University event on Wednesday evening. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7202(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7068(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed on Tuesday as yen dipped as investors reassessed Japan’s fiscal health and pushed back bets on a Bank of Japan rate increase .Investors remain uneasy about Japan’s fiscal outlook as expectations grow that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will unveil additional stimulus measures to support the economy. The yen saw sharp spikes on three occasions in January, with the biggest moves coming after reports of an unusual rate check by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as the currency weakened toward the psychologically significant 160 level.The yen surged over 1% to a three-month high of 152.10 per dollar after the rate checks often seen as a precursor to official intervention. It stood around 154.60 in Asia on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.10(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.23(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.98 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.82 (Feb 18th low).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks steadied on Tuesday after a shaky open, as a renewed AI-driven selloff on Wall Street unsettled investors. Sentiment was further pressured by growing concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and rising geopolitical tensions.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.93% , Hang Seng was down at 2.16 %, China A50 was up at 0.25%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices retreated from a more than three-week high on Tuesday, as gains in the U.S. dollar outweighed support from ongoing tariff uncertainty and rising tensions between Washington and Tehran.
Spot gold fell 1.5% to $5,150.38 per ounce by 0125 GMT after hitting a more than three-week high earlier in the day.U.S. gold futures for April delivery were down 1.1% at $5,170.70.
Oil prices held just below a near seven-month high on Tuesday as traders assessed prospects for U.S.-Iran nuclear talks amid elevated Middle East tensions and ongoing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy.
Brent crude futures eased 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $71.40 a barrel by 0120 GMT, following a volatile session on Monday that saw it hit the highest level since July 31 at $72.50 while swinging between gains and losses of more than 1%.
