Market Roundup
• US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) 16.3, 7.5 forecast, 12.6 previous
• US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb): 16.3, 7.5 forecast, 12.6 previous.
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 206K, 223K forecast, 229K previous.
•Canada Trade Balance (Dec): -1.31B, -2.10B forecast, -2.59B previous.
•Canada New Housing Price Index MoM (Jan): -0.4%, 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous.
• US Philly Fed Employment (Feb): -1.3, 9.7 previous.
• US Goods Trade Balance (Dec): -98.50B, -86.00B forecast, -82.78B previous.
• US Trade Balance (Dec): -70.30B, 55.50B forecast, -53.00B previous.
• US Retail Inventories Ex Auto MoM (Dec): 0.2%, -0.2% previous.
• US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,869K, 1,860K forecast, 1,852K previous.
• US Exports (Dec): 287.30B, 292.30B previous.
• US Imports (Dec): 357.60B, 345.30B previous.
•Canada Exports (Dec): 65.63B, 63.95B previous.
•Canada Imports (Dec): 66.93B, 66.53B previous.
• US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Feb): 42.8, 25.5 previous.
• US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Feb): 38.90, 46.90 previous.
• US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Feb): 14.40, 30.30 previous.
• US Philly Fed New Orders (Feb): 11.7, 14.4 previous.
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 219.00K, 220.00K previous.
• US Wholesale Inventories MoM (Dec): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•00:30 Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Feb) 53.7 forecast previous.
•00:30 Japan Manufacturing & Services PMI (Feb) 53.10 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro fell for a second straight day, extending declines after its biggest daily percentage decline since January 30 on Wednesday after the Financial Times reported that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde was expected to leave her post before the end of her eight-year term.Four sources told Reuters that Lagarde has informed colleagues she remains focused on her job and she would tell them first if she was about to step down, a message they took to mean she was not about to resign.The dollar index , which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.19% to 97.88, with the euro down 0.14% at $1.1766.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1859(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1775(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1730(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Thursday as remarks from Bank of England interest rate-setter Catherine Mann weighed pound .Bank of England interest rate-setter Catherine Mann said British inflation data published this week represented "good numbers" although there was not as much improvement in the underlying figures as the central bank had hoped to see.BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, Mann said she was not sure that a projected fall of inflation to 2% in the coming months meant Britain had fixed its high inflation problem.Mann voted with the majority in a 5-4 decision by the MPC this month to keep rates on hold. She said at the time that the time for a cut was closer.Investors were putting the likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut by the BoE in March at about 80% on Thursda Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3592(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3483 (61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3464(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher on Thursday as oil prices rose and data showed that Canada's trade deficit narrowed in December. Canada’s trade deficit shrank to C$1.31 billion ($957 million) in December from a revised C$2.59 billion in November, driven by a surge in unwrought gold exports that boosted total shipments by 2.6%.The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which has protected a large share of Canadian exports from U.S. tariffs, is scheduled to be reviewed ahead of a July 1 deadline.Oil prices, a key component of Canada’s export revenues, settled 1.9% higher at $66.43 per barrel as traders grew concerned over rising tensions between the United States and Iran, with both sides increasing military activity in the oil-producing Middle East. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3753(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3761(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3657(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3629(SMA 20).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday as drop in U.S. jobless claims signalled labour-market stability ahead of inflation data later this week.U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to 206,000 in the week to February 14, well below expectations for a reading of 225,000, reinforcing the strength signaled by last week's robust monthly employment report.Investors are now awaiting the release on Friday of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge for further clues on the U.S. central bank's policy trajectory.Markets currently expect this year's first U.S. interest rate cut to occur in June, according to CME Group's FedWatch. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.40(Daily hgh) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.96(SMA 20) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.78 (61.8%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.12 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks closed sharply lower on Thursday, pulling back from record highs as weak earnings and expectations of prolonged elevated Fed rates weighed on sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.55 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.93 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.36 percent.
Wall Street fell on Thursday, dragged down by private equity stocks and declines in Walmart and Apple, though industrials’ earnings gains helped cap the losses.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.54 % percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.28 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.31% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices steadied on Thursday as investors assessed U.S.-Iran tensions, while a drop in U.S. jobless claims signalled labour-market stability ahead of inflation data later this week.
Spot gold was unchanged at $4,979.18 per ounce by 01:31 p.m. EST (1831 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 0.2% lowerat$4,997.40.
Oil prices climbed about 2% on Thursday, reaching a six-month high amid concerns over rising U.S.-Iran tensions and increased military activity in the oil-rich Middle East.
Brent crude futures settled up $1.31, or 1.9% at $71.66 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $1.24, or 1.9% at $66.43.
