Market Roundup
• German WPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.9%, 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
•German WPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.2% forecast, 1.2% previous
•Switzerland CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
•Switzerland CPI (YoY) (Jan) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.3%, 1.4% previous
•EU Trade Balance (Dec) 12.6B, 9.3B previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.3%, 0.3% previous
•EU Employment Overall (Q4) 1,72,516.6K, 1,72,210.4K previous
•EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4) 0.2%, 0.2% previous
•EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q4) 0.7%, 0.6% previous
•US CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.4%, 2.7% previous
•US Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.3%, 0.2% previous
•US Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.5%, 2.6% previous
•US Real Earnings (MoM) (Jan) 0.5%, -0.5% previous
•US Core CPI Index (Jan) 332.79, 331.81 previous
•US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Jan) 325.25, 324.05 previous
•US CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Jan) 0.37%, -0.02% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•16:00 US Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Jan)0.3% previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 412 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 551 previous
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Friday after data showed Eurozone Growth Holds Steady in Q4 2025. The euro area economy expanded by 0.3% in Q4 2025, confirming earlier estimates and matching the pace recorded in the previous three months.The data underscore the bloc’s resilience amid easing inflation and lower interest rates, despite headwinds from US trade tariffs on EU imports.Germany and Italy each posted growth of 0.3%, while France lagged behind with a 0.2% increase.On an annual basis, Eurozone GDP grew by 1.3%, slightly easing from 1.4% in Q3.For the full year 2025, the GDP expanded by 1.5%, accelerating from 0.9% in 2024. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Friday after a turbulent week in British politics and in financial markets, which have been gripped by worries about the long-term impact of artificial intelligence. The pound suffered earlier in the week when a political crisis sparked by the Epstein affair seemed to threaten Prime Minister Keir Starmer's hold on power.The week also brought data that showed Britain's economy grew just 0.1% in the fourth quarter, matching the previous quarter's pace and partly reflecting uncertainty in the run-up to finance minister Rachel Reeves' November budget.Investors are pricing in a 63.4% chance that the Bank of England will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points when it meets in March. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3583 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3512(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Friday as investors trimmed risk exposure amid weakening global sentiment and shifted toward safer assets.Despite the pullback, support is expected from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish stance and the currency’s yield advantage, which could help limit deeper losses.Markets are closely watching the release of the RBA’s February meeting minutes on Tuesday for clearer guidance on the policy outlook. Policymakers are widely expected to wait for first-quarter inflation data, due in late April, before making any rate decisions.Current pricing implies a 70% chance of a rate hike to 3.85% in May, compared with just a 20% probability of a move at the March meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7202(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7068(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher, though gains were limited as diverging policy expectations between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve restrained further upside.Investor optimism that Sanae Takaichi will pursue fiscally responsible policies has improved confidence in Japan’s economic outlook. This has strengthened expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue its policy normalization path, supporting the safe-haven yen, especially amid prevailing risk-off sentiment.Contrary to earlier expectations of weakness, the yen has strengthened significantly this week, catching many investors off guard. The currency is on track for its strongest weekly gain in nearly 15 months, as Takaichi’s historic election victory eased concerns over Japan’s fiscal stability and reinforced confidence in the yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.70(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.18(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.39 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.40 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares were muted on Friday as concerns over potential AI-related disruptions kept investors cautious, while mixed earnings from Safran and L’Oreal added to market uncertainty.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.50 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices declined on Friday after a Reuters report indicated that OPEC+ was inclined to resume production increases, while easing concerns over a potential U.S.-Iran conflict further reduced supply risk fears.
Brent crude fell 11 cents to $67.41 a barrel after a 2.7% drop in the previous session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate declined 15 cents to $62.69 following a 2.8% fall.
Gold climbed on Friday, recovering from Thursday’s near one-week low as bargain-hunters returned to the market, while investors awaited key U.S. inflation data for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Spot gold was up 0.7% at $4,951.90 per ounce as of 1158 GMT, but is down 0.1%so far this week. U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 0.5%to $4,971.70 per ounce.
