Market Roundup
•UK Average Earnings +Bonus (Dec): 4.2%, 4.6% forecast, 4.6% previous.
•UK Claimant Count Change (Jan): 28.6K, 22.8K forecast, 2.7K previous.
•Germany HICP (MoM) (Jan): -0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•Germany HICP (YoY) (Jan): 2.1%, 2.1% forecast, 2.0% previous.
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Dec): 4.2%, 4.2% forecast, 4.4% previous.
•Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb): 39.4, 45.7 forecast, 40.8 previous.
•Germany ZEW Current Conditions (Feb): -65.9, -65.7 forecast, -72.7 previous.
•Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb): 58.3, 65.8 forecast, 59.6 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Jan): 2.8% previous.
•13:30 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jan): -0.4% previous.
•13:30 Canada CPI (MoM) (Jan): 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous.
•13:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (Dec): 14.27B, 16.33B previous.
•13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Dec): 2.1%, -1.8% previous.
•13:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb): 6.40, forecast 7.70 previous.
•13:30 Canada CPI (YoY) (Jan): 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous.
•13:30 Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Jan): 2.7%, 2.8% previous.
•13:30 Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Jan): 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous.
•13:30 Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Jan): 2.6% forecast, 2.7% previous.
•13:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Dec): 16.490B previous.
•15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb): 38 forecast, 37 previous.
•15:00 US CB Employment Trends Index (Jan): 104.27 previous.
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.600% previous.
•16:30US 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.500% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro eased slightly on Tuesday as markets awaited signals the potential timing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.Trading was thin with many markets in Asia closed for the Lunar New Year holiday and following the President's Day holiday in the U.S. Key economic events lie later in the week, with minutes from the Fed's last meeting and advance figures on U.S. gross domestic product.The Fed's Open Market Committee issues minutes from its January meeting on Wednesday. Other key data points this week include inflation readings for Britain, Canada and Japan, as well as preliminary readings of global business activity on Friday.The euro traded down 0.01% at $1.1863. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell on Tuesday after data showed the UK jobless rate climbed to a five-year high in December and wage growth eased, reinforcing expectations of further rate cuts from the Bank of England.Unemployment rose to 5.2% in Q4 2025 from 5.1% in the previous three months, marking the highest level since 2020 and, excluding the pandemic period, the highest since 2015.Meanwhile, wage growth excluding bonuses slowed to 4.2% year-on-year in the three months to December, down from 4.4%. Regular private-sector pay, closely monitored by the BoE, also cooled to 3.4% from 3.6%. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 3.75% earlier this month, but a larger-than-expected number of policymakers backed a cut, prompting traders to raise bets on further easing this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3583 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3512(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Tuesday after the release of Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes from its February meeting. Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest board meeting showed policymakers believed risks to inflation and employment had shifted significantly, strengthening the case for a rate hike.Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia showed policymakers saw a material shift in inflation risks, prompting a 25-basis-point rate hike to 3.85%.Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia showed policymakers saw risks to both inflation and growth and would rely on incoming data to guide policy decisions.The Reserve Bank of Australia board unanimously raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, reversing one of the three cuts made in 2025. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7202(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7068(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased on Tuesday as the yen trimmed earlier losses, after weak Japanese data had sparked expectations of additional government stimulus.The pair had rallied from 152.57 to 153.62 the previous day following softer-than-expected GDP figures, which pressured the yen and supported dollar demand.Beyond the weak GDP data, there are no major drivers currently weighing on the yen. Markets also showed little reaction to the recent meeting between Kazuo Ueda and Sanae Takaichi, as no meaningful policy signals emerged.Trading in Asia is likely to stay subdued due to Lunar New Year holidays, with several key financial centers closed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.03(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.96(SMA 20) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.78 (61.8%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.12 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares held steady on Tuesday as investors monitored U.S.-Iran talks and weighed the potential impact of AI-driven disruptions on business models.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.35 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.02 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.03 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell to a more than one-week low on Tuesday as a stronger dollar weighed on prices, while investors awaited developments in U.S.–Iran talks and further signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Spot gold fell 1% to $4,942.48 per ounce by 1226 GMT after losing more than 2% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery declined 1.7% to $4,961.80 per ounce.
Brent oil prices held steady on Tuesday as investors remained cautious ahead of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States, as well as trilateral peace talks involving the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia in Geneva.
Brent crude futures were up 11 cents, or 0.16%, at $68.76 a barrel at 1157 GMT, following a 1.33% gain on Monday.
