Market Roundup
• EU Current Account n.s.a. (Dec): 34.6B, 12.9B previous.
• EU Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction: 3.167%, 3.223% previous.
• EU Spanish 5-Year Bonos Auction: 2.577%, 2.512% previous.
• EU Belgium Consumer Confidence (Feb): 1, 4 previous.
• EU Construction Output (MoM) (Dec): 0.88%, -1.54% previous.
• EU Spanish Trade Balance (Dec): -5.57B, -5.68B previous.
• EU Spanish 3-Year Bonos Auction: 2.273%, 2.341% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb): 7.5, 12.6 previous.
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 223K, 227K previous.
•13:30 Canada Trade Balance (Dec): -2.10B, -2.20B previous.
•13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Jan): 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous.
•13:30 US Philly Fed Employment (Feb): 9.7 previous.
•13:30 US Goods Trade Balance (Dec): -86.00B forecast, -86.04B previous.
•13:30 US Trade Balance (Dec): -55.50B forecast, -56.80B previous.
•13:30 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Dec): 0.2% previous.
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,860K forecast, 1,862K previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No events Ahead
Currency forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday as a mildly hawkish reading of the Federal Reserve’s latest minutes lent support to the dollar.Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed policymakers were in no hurry to cut interest rates, with several officials even open to further hikes should inflation prove persistent.Attention now turns to weekly U.S. jobless claims due later today and Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in the first rate cut of the year in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1859(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1775(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1730(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Thursday as the U.S. dollar strengthened, supported by solid U.S. economic data and unexpectedly hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve.Minutes from the Fed showed policymakers were divided over the future direction of interest rates, indicating that the next chair, due to take office in May, could face difficulties in pushing through rate cuts.While several officials expect productivity gains to help moderate inflation, “most participants” cautioned that progress may be slow and uneven. Some also signaled that further rate hikes could be considered if inflation remains above target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3592(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3483 (61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3464(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Thursday after upbeat jobs data narrowed the odds of another rate rise.The employment report showed that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in January, defying analysts’ expectation of 4.2%. Total employment grew by 17,800 after a substantial surge in the prior month, with full-time positions climbing sharply by 50,500.The Reserve Bank of Australia cited a tight labour market as one reason why it lifted rates by a quarter point earlier this month, and there is yet no sign of any loosening in the market. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7138(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7152(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7032(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7000(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday after minutes from the Federal Reserve indicated policymakers were not in a hurry to cut interest rates.The yen also weakened after the Trump administration announced $36 billion worth of projects as the first tranche of investments under Japan’s pledged $550 billion commitment to the United States. The Japanese currency fell 1% overnight and was steady at 154.78 per dollar on Thursday, pulling back from the 152 level it tested last week following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide electoral victory.The yen has declined over recent years due to persistently low domestic interest rates and concerns over Japan’s fiscal outlook, though it has recently drawn some support from expectations of stronger economic growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.29(Daily hgh) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.96(SMA 20) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.78 (61.8%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.12 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares edged slightly lower on Thursday as investors digested a mixed set of corporate earnings from Airbus, Rio Tinto, and Nestle.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.65 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.02 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.82 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices extended their advance on Thursday, building on a more than 2% surge in the previous session, as ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran fueled safe-haven demand. Investors also continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,989.09 per ounce by 1227 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery held steady at $5,008.60.
Oil prices climbed on Thursday amid mounting fears of a possible military confrontation between the United States and Iran, as both sides intensified their military presence in the key oil-producing region
Brent futures were up $1.09, or 1.55%, at $71.44 a barrel by 1247 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also gained $1.09, or 1.7%, to $66.28.
