Market Roundup
• UK Employment Change 3M/3M (May) 147K, 85K forecast, 100K previous
•UK Unemployment Rate (May) 4.9%, 4.9% forecast, 4.9% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index + Bonus (May) 4.3%, 4.5% forecast, 4.4% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Jun) 6.7K, 29.4K forecast, 1.3K previous
•Switzerland Trade Balance (Jun) 5.224B, 5.989B previous
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (May) 3.4%, 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous
•EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) 23.4, 11.2 forecast, 9.5 previous
• German ZEW Current Conditions (Jul)-77.6, -77.8 forecast,-81.0 previous
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) 26.3,15.1 forecast, 10.5 previous
• US ADP Employment Change Weekly 16.50K , 19.80K previous
• US Redbook (YoY) 7.8%, 8.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 17:30 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Tuesday as dollar firmed as investors assessed conflict in the Middle East . German investor morale rose much more than expected in July as a government reform package brightened the mood despite uncertainty about the conflict in Iran, a survey found on Tuesday.The indicator of economic sentiment more than doubled, to 26.3 points from 10.5 points the month before, the ZEW economic research institute said. This week, focus will also be on commentary from European Central Bank policymakers at their monetary policy meeting where they are expected to hold interest rates steady.Market participants are pricing in at least one 25-basis-point hike by end-2026 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1437(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1324(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against the dollar on Tuesday as investors weighed the prospect of higher government spending and how new finance minister John Healey will finance it. The appointment of Healey, a former defence secretary, was announced after the close of UK markets on Monday. He had not been seen as a leading candidate for the key role in new Prime Minister Andy Burnham's cabinet, but his appointment was generally seen as positive.Investors were also digesting the latest UK economic data, which analysts said was positive for the new finance minister as it suggested the Bank of England may have room to ease interest rates over the next year.British annual wage growth held at 3.4% in the three months to May, matching economists' forecasts, while UK public borrowing declined to £16 billion ($21.5 billion) in June.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3454(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Tuesday as gains in gold, silver, copper and improving risk appetite supported Australian dollar. Gold rose more than 1% on Tuesday as hopes of easing U.S.-Iran tensions reduced inflation concerns and influenced Fed rate expectations. Investors are awaiting Australia's June jobs report on Thursday, with employment expected to rise by 15,000 and the unemployment rate forecast to remain at 4.4%.A weaker-than-expected jobs report could lead traders to pare back expectations for further policy tightening. Attention now turns to Australia's employment report due on Thursday.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6952 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6875(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6811(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against yen on Tuesday as the latest round of attacks in the Middle East sent oil prices higher and stoked concerns about persistent inflation.Optimism that adurable peace deal could be reached between the U.S. and Iran had pushed crude prices down as May began, and recent subdued inflation data had cooled market expectations of a rate hike at its policy meeting next week.But oil prices have reversed in recent days as tensions in the region have flared, and comments from multiple Fed officials, including Chairman Kevin Warsh, have flagged concerns about inflation pressures.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 163.26(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.67(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 162.16(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 160.61(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Tuesday as easing oil prices, driven by reports of U.S.-Iran mediation efforts, lifted sentiment while investors assessed fresh corporate earnings.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.55 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.56 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.28 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose about 2% on Tuesday to a five-week high as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and Houthi threats to blockade Saudi Arabia raised concerns over Middle East oil supplies.
Brent futures rose $2.12, or 2.4%, to $91.34 a barrel at 10:53 a.m. EDT (1453 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.80, or 2.2%, to $85.03.
Gold rose more than 1% on Tuesday as hopes of a U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthrough eased energy price concerns and reduced expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve.
Spot gold gained 1.7% to $4,077.09 per ounce by 11:20 a.m. EDT (1520 GMT), while U.S. gold futures for August delivery rose 1.6% to $4,080.20.
