Market Roundup
•Canada Housing Starts (Jun) 239.0K, 256.0K forecast, 253.1K previous
•US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 1.0% previous
•US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -0.2%, 0.0% forecast, 1.0% previous
•US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) 41.4, 12.7 forecast, 10.3 previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 208K, 216K forecast, 216K previous
•US Philly Fed Employment (Jul) 10.0, 7.9 previous
•US Retail Control (MoM) (Jun) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.8% previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,805K, 1,820K forecast, 1,821K previous
•US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Jul) 34.4, 50.2 previous
•US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Jun) 0.4%, 0.8% previous
•US Philly Fed New Orders (Jul) 37.0, 27.3 previous
•US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jul) 53.90, 53.20 previous
•US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Jul) 30.10, 41.20 previous
•US Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) 6.72%, 7.33% previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 214.25K, 219.00K previous
•US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) -5.4%, -0.5% forecast, 3.5% previous
•US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Business Inventories (MoM) (May) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Pending Home Sales Index (Jun) 72.5, 76.6 previous
•US NAHB Housing Market Index (Jul) 34, 35 forecast, 36 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•04:00 New Zealand RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Jun) 57.50% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Thursday as renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran kept investors cautious. The U.S. struck Iran's coastal defence and missile installations on Wednesday after reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports, while Tehran threatened to curb additional regional energy exports, describing the conflict as an "existential war" with Washington.Brent crude climbed above $85 a barrel on concerns that the escalating Middle East conflict could disrupt oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, reviving worries about inflation. Meanwhile, European Central Bank will hold interest rates on July 23 but will hike for the second time this year in September as a renewed energy price surge raises the risk of more intense inflation pressures, according of economists .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1437(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1324(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling hovered near its highest level in more than two months against the dollar as concerns over Britain's fiscal outlook faded. Andy Burnham is expected to appoint interior minister Shabana Mahmood as finance minister when he becomes Britain's prime minister next week, rather than the more left-leaning energy minister, Ed Miliband, easing concerns about fiscal discipline. Britain's economy eked out minimal growth in May as the services industry expanded but other sectors shrank, suggesting fragile confidence among businesses.Andy Burnham is expected to be formally sworn in as prime minister on July 20.Britain will need extra tax rises or spending cuts to prevent government debt spiralling higher from current levels, the Office for Budget Responsibility said last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3444(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, but held near an earlier four-week high as cooler U.S. inflation data this week narrowed the gap between U.S. and Canadian bond yields. The gap between Canada's 2-year yield and its U.S. equivalent has narrowed to 132 basis points in favor of the U.S. note from 142 basis points last month. The Bank of Canada on Wednesday left its benchmark overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% as widely expected and said growth would strengthen in the second half of the year as inflation pressures eased.In domestic data, housing starts fell 6% in June to 238,971 units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, falling short of the 257,900 that economists had projected. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4128(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4163(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4019(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3930(61.8%fib).
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USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen on Thursday as heightening inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of elevated U.S. interest rates.Higher oil prices stoke inflation concerns, raising expectations of elevated interest rates .Oil prices rose over 1% as concerns over Middle East energy supplies increased after Iran asked Yemen's Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the U.S. strikes Iranian power infrastructure.Traders are now pricing in about a 56% chance that the Federal Reserve will hike rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed his commitment to bringing inflation back to target.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 162.73(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 159.58(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks posted slim gains for the third straight session on Thursday, as caution over the Middle East war kept markets in a tight range despite strong earnings.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.54 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.34 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.05 percent.
Chip stocks dragged the Nasdaq and S&P 500 lower on Thursday despite upbeat U.S. economic data and a strong start to the second-quarter earnings season..
Dow Jones closed down by 0.20% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.51 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.47% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell 2% to a more than two-week low as rising Middle East tensions lifted oil prices and Treasury yields, reinforcing expectations for higher U.S. interest rates.
Spot gold was down 1.9% at $3,984.64 per ounce by 2:05 p.m. EDT (1405) GMT, after falling as much as 2% and touching its lowest since July 1 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled 1.5% to $3,992.10.
Oil prices settled about 1% lower but remained near one-month highs as the Iran conflict escalated and Tehran urged Yemen's Houthis to prepare to disrupt Red Sea oil shipments.
Brent crude futures fell 72 cents, or about 0.9%, to settle at $84.23 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 65 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $78.95 a barrel. At their session highs, both contracts were up more than 1%.
