Market Roundup
•German CPI (MoM) (Jun) -0.3%, -0.3% forecast, -0.2% previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Jun) 2.3%, 2.3% forecast, 2.6% previous
•French CPI (MoM) (Jun) -0.3%, -0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Jun) -0.3%, -0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Jun) 2.0%, 2.0% forecast, 2.8% previous
•French CPI (YoY) (Jun) 1.8%, 1.8% forecast, 2.4% previous
•French CPI NSA (MoM) (Jun) -0.3%, -0.2% previous
•French CPI NSA (YoY) (Jun) 1.8%, 1.8% previous
•Canada Unemployment Rate (Jun) 6.5%, 6.6% forecast, 6.6% previous
•Canada Employment Change (Jun) 18.2K, 11.2K forecast, 87.8K previous
•Canada Building Permits (MoM) (May) -1.7%, 1.0% forecast, -6.6% previous
•Canada Part Time Employment Change (Jun) 17.5K, -66.2K previous
•Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employee (Jun) 3.7%, 3.2% previous
•Canada Full Employment Change (Jun) 0.6K, 154.0K previous
•Canada Participation Rate (Jun) 65.0%, 65.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 445 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 580 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro rose marginally on Friday as investors judged the latest flareup in the Iran conflict was unlikely to escalate.A U.S. official said Washington remained committed to finding a resolution with Iran and that "technical talks continue".Earlier this week, renewed U.S.-Iran tensions prompted traders to increase bets that the ECB could deliver two additional rate hikes this year following its June move, pushing bond yields higher. Money markets were pricing in around 32 basis points of ECB tightening by year-end on Friday, implying one further quarter-point rate increase and roughly a 30% chance of a second move. That was down from about 36 basis points earlier in the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1475(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1495(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1368(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1291(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound hit one month high on Friday as improving risk sentiment and weaker dollar supported the sterling. Andy Burnham has moved closer to becoming the next Labour leader and UK prime minister after securing the backing of an overwhelming majority of Labour MPs to succeed Sir Keir Starmer.Burnham's leadership bid has been endorsed by 322 Labour MPs, making him the only declared candidate since nominations opened on Thursday.He is now just one nomination short of the 323 required to make it mathematically impossible for any rival candidate to enter the leadership contest.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3433(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar edged higher on Friday as softer dollar combined with an improvement in global risk sentiment helped underpin demand for the risk-sensitive Australian currency.Stronger copper, gold and other commodity prices boosted the outlook for Australia's commodity-linked currency, encouraging buying interest in AUD/USD. Dollar weakened against major peers as well as decline in U.S. Treasury yields from recent highs, coupled with resilience in risk-sensitive assets, reduced demand for the greenback.The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet in August and is expected to keep its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, though markets still price in a roughly 60% chance of one final rate hike later this year, depending on the movement of oil prices.Traders also await key employment and inflation data due later this month, which could offer fresh clues on the policy outlook.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6952 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6875(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6811(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar fell sharply on Friday as the yen strengthened after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government would encourage domestic pension funds to increase their holdings of Japanese financial assets.The remarks drew attention to the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), the world's largest pension fund, which managed 293.6 trillion yen ($1.8 trillion) in assets at the end of March.The latest news also highlights how urgently Tokyo is searching for ways to anchor markets buffeted by sharp swings in bond yields and the currency.Before Friday's news, the yen had been languishing near 40-year lows, keeping traders on guard for potential intervention by Japanese authorities. Immediate resistance can be seen at 162.73(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 159.58(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares were muted on Friday as broader gains were largely offset by declines in technology stocks while investors assessed renewed Middle East tensions that put the benchmark on track for declines this week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.22 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.19 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.03 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose on Friday and were on track for weekly gains as renewed U.S.-Iran fighting disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, stoking concerns over supply disruptions.
Brent futures were up 29 cents, or 0.38%, at $76.59 a barrel by 0120 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 17 cents, or 0.24%, to $72.25.
Gold eased on Friday and was on track for a weekly decline as rising oil prices, driven by renewed Middle East tensions, heightened inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep monetary policy tighter for longer.
Spot gold slid 0.5% to $4,101.70 per ounce by 09:11 a.m EDT (1311 GMT), while U.S. gold futures for August delivery dropped 0.7% to $4,110.60 per ounce.
