Market Roundup
• Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (Apr): 50.3, 46.3 previous.
• Australia Manufacturing & Services PMI (Apr): 50.1, 46.6 previous.
• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 51.0, 49.8 previous.
•Japan Foreign Bonds Buying: -12.8B, 698.2B previous.
•Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks: 2,380.9B, 3,941.4B previous.
•Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 51.2, 51.6 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 11:00Belgium Consumer Confidence (Apr)-6 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday as the ongoing stand-off between the U.S. and Iran in the Middle East conflict and a lack of progress in peace talks weighed on investor sentiment.Tehran’s seizure of two ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday escalated tensions, even after Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, with no signs of negotiations resuming.The two sides remain divided over a ceasefire, blockades, nuclear issues and control of the strait, leaving the key shipping route effectively shut and triggering an energy shock that is weighing on economies worldwide.The euro was fetching $1.1699, having touched its lowest since April 13 earlier in the session. The single currency is headed for a 0.5% decline in the week, its first drop in four weeks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1823(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1900(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1707(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1658(April 14th low).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against the dollar on Thursday asrenewed shipping woes in the Gulf underscored fragile risk sentiment as a peace deal eludes the U.S. and Iran. Iran on Wednesday captured two container ships seeking to exit the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, tightening its grip on the crucial waterway, as investors watch if the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East will hold. Trump maintained the U.S. Navy blockade of Iran's trade by sea, and Iran's parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said a full ceasefire only made sense if it was lifted.Brent crude oil prices remained above $100 a barrel after larger-than-expected gasoline and distillate stock draws in the United States, and over a lack of progress on the peace talks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3518(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3598(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3449(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3407(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar eased slightly on Thursday as lack of progress in peace talks weighed on investor sentiment.Iran on Wednesday captured two container ships seeking to exit the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, tightening its grip on the crucial waterway, as investors watch if the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East will hold.The two sides now remain divided on a ceasefire, blockade, nuclear issues and control of the strait, leaving the strategic waterway still effectively shut and triggering an energy shock in a blow to economies across the world.On the data front, Australia’s manufacturing sector returned to expansion territory, with the latest survey from S&P Global on Thursday showing the manufacturing PMI rising to 51.0. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7156 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7183(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7073(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6990(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday as safe-haven demand linked to risks around the Strait of Hormuz continuing to support the greenback.The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates steady next week but signal its readiness to hike them as soon as June.The BOJ ended a decade-long, massive stimulus in 2024 and raised interest rates including in December on the view that Japan was making progress in durably hitting its 2% inflation target.On the data front, Japan's manufacturing activity expanded at its strongest pace in four years in April as firms boosted production over concerns about potential supply shortages due to rising tensions in the Middle East, a private-sector survey showed on Thursday.The S&P Global flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 54.9 in April, the highest since January 2022, from 51.6 in March. The 50-mark separates growth from contraction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.43(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.07(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares pulled back from record highs on Thursday as rising oil prices, driven by renewed shipping disruptions in the Gulf, highlighted fragile risk sentiment amid the absence of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 0.74 % , Hang Seng was down at 0.87 %, China A50 was down at 0.16%
Commodities Recap
Gold fell on Thursday as elevated oil prices fuelled fears of inflation and prolonged high interest rates, while investors looked for clarity on the stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks.
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $4,711.27 per ounce, as of 0617 GMT. U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 0.5% to $4,727.70.
Oil prices extended their gains on Thursday in the wake of stalled peace talks between Iran and the United States, and as both nations maintained restrictions on the flow of trade through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures , opens new tab> rose $1.37, or 1.3%, to $103.28 a barrel at 0410 GMT, after settling above $100 for the first time in more than two weeks on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate futures were also up $1.52, or 1.6%, at $94.48.
