Market Roundup
•Swiss Feb CPI (MoM) 0.6%,0.5%forecast,0.2% previous
•Swiss Feb CPI (YoY) 1.2%,1.1% forecast,1.3% previous
•Spanish Unemployment Change-7.5K, 50.0K forecast, 60.4K previous
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
•13:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.471% previous
•13:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.845% previous
•13:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.768% previous
•16:30 US3-Month Bill Auction 5.255% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.130% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Events and Other Releases (GMT)
•16:00 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Monday as investors kept a watchful eye on the European Central Bank's upcoming monetary policy meeting. The ECB meets on Thursday and is expected to keep rates at a record high 4%, but the central bank is also likely to lower its outlook for inflation in a nod to eventual cuts. In the last week, data showed euro zone inflation dipped in February, but underlying price growth proved to be sticky. Another data set showed manufacturing activity continued to contract last month. Markets now see around 90 basis points of rate cuts this year with the first move coming in June. The euro was firm following Friday's 0.33% advance. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0868(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0883(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0793(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0729 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the dollar on Monday as investors awaited UK budget later this week. Britain's upcoming Spring budget, scheduled on Wednesday ahead of an expected election this year, is drawing significant interest from investors. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt faces the challenge of striking a balance between implementing measures to boost growth while managing high public debt and inflation above target.Investors are eagerly awaiting Hunt's plan, particularly regarding anticipated tax cuts and housing stimulus measures. However, there's a concern that excessive spending could trigger inflation fears and complicating the Bank of England's ability to lower interest rates, which are currently at 16-year highs. Sterling gained 0.19% to $1.2677. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2685(Feb 29th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2709(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2640(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2629(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Monday after Swiss February inflation came in a fraction higher than expected at 1.2% compared to the previous year. The currency gave back some of those knee-jerk gains and versus the franc, the dollar was up 0.09% at 0.8837 francs.Swiss inflation fell in February to its lowest level in nearly two and half years, government data showed on Monday, fuelling expectations that the Swiss National Bank could cut interest rates later this month.Consumer prices rose by 1.2% compared with a year earlier, a deceleration from the 1.3% rate in January albeit a slightly higher rate than the 1.1% forecast in a poll.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8887(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8915(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8802(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.773(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Monday as traders assessed cautious comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda from late last week that it was too early to conclude that the central bank's inflation target is close to being met. That contrasted with hawkish remarks from BOJ board member Hajime Takata earlier the same day, that had sent the yen to a more than two-week high of 149.21 per dollar.Markets are weighing whether the BOJ will end its negative interest policy at its March 18-19 meeting, or wait until April or later.Policy makers have repeatedly stressed the need to see continued wage growth, and the outcome of crucial spring salary negotiations will be known on March 13 for Japan's biggest firms.. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.00(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.69(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.79(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 149.00(Psychological level )
Equities Recap
European shares started the week on a subdued tone as investors remained cautious ahead of the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting later in the week, while strength in technology stocks partially offset losses in other sectors.
At (GMT 13:26 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.67 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.03 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.13 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were anchored near a two-month peak on Monday, following last week's tepid U.S. economic data, which solidified bets for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut of the year in June.
Spot gold was steady at $2,082.89 per ounce, as of 1230 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $2,091.50.
Oil prices edged downwards on Monday as traders opted for profit-taking, following the widely anticipated extension of voluntary output cuts by the OPEC+ producer group through the middle of the year.
Brent futures were down 41 cents to $83.14 a barrel at 1218 GMT after rising 2.4% last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 52 cents to $79.45 a barrel following a 4.6% gain last week.
