Market Roundup
• German Jan Exports (MoM) 6.3%,1.5% forecast, -4.6%previous
• German Jan German Imports (MoM) 3.6%,1.8% forecast, -6.7% previous
• German Jan Trade Balance 27.5B,21.0B forecast,22.2B previous
•UK Feb Construction PMI 49.7 ,49.0 forecast,48.8 previous
•15:30 German Car Registration (YoY) 5.4%, 19.1% previous
•15:30 EU Jan Retail Sales (YoY) -1.0%, -1.3% forecast, -0.8% previous
•15:30 EU Retail Sales (MoM) 0.1%,0.1%% forecast, -1.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:15 US Feb ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 149K forecast,107K previous
•13:30 Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) 0.2% forecast, -0.8% previous
•14:45 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 5.00% forecast,5.00% previous
•15:00 US Jan Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 0.7% previous
•15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 45.2 forecast,44.0 previous
•15:00 US Jan JOLTs Job Openings 8.800M forecast,9.026M previous
•15:00 US Jan Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
•15:00 Canada Feb Ivey PMI n.s.a 54.4 previous
•15:00 Canada Feb Ivey PMI 56.5 previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 2.400M forecast,4.199M previous
•18:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1)2.1% forecast, 2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases (GMT)
•14:45 Canada BoC Rate Statement
•15:00 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
•15:30 Canada BOC Press Conference
•17:00 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks
•20:15 US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro gained traction against the dollar on Wednesday as Investors looked forward to Powell's testimony before Congress later in the day .On the data front, German exports rose more than expected at the start of 2024 on rising demand from European Union's countries and China. Investors also awaited European Central Bank's monetary policy decision, the recent resilience in economic data has already prepared the markets for a hold on interest rate in Thursday's meeting. Traders have placed their maximum bets on ECB's June 6 meeting for the beginning of the monetary easing cycle. Markets are pricing around 90 basis points of easing from European Central Bank this year, with expection to start cutting rates in June. The euro was up almost 0.2% at $1.0873 against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0884(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0915(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0840(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0810(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound gained traction against the dollar on Wednesday as traders awaited Britain's latest fiscal plans, possibly the last budget before a likely election later in the year. Markets will be closely watching Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt's spring budget for probable tax cuts before a likely election in 2024, but with the gilt turmoil of 2022 still fresh in the memory, the leeway for sweeping fiscal easing is limited.Media reports have suggested Hunt will cut the rate of social security contributions by 2 percentage points but the tight fiscal headroom gives little room for manoeuvre. Sterling was last up about 0.1% at $1.2727 , just shy of a one-month top of $1.2735 reached on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2729(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2742(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2689 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2654(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar was little changed against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors cautiously awaited testimony by the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Investors focus is on Powell's first day of semi-annual congressional testimony on the state of the U.S. economy amidst an environment of elevated interest rates.Investors are also on the lookout for U.S. jobs data for February due on Friday for further policy clues. The dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of six others, down around 0.1% at 103.63..Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8866 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8897 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8827(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8788(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen on Wednesday after report showed that some Bank of Japan board members think it would be appropriate to lift rates from negative territory at the March meeting. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak publicly.The board will discuss the economy's assessment and its outlook, as well as whether to tweak its ultra-loose policy, at its next meeting on March 18-19. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the central bank will focus on the outcome of the wage negotiations, and whether firms will pass on rising labour costs by raising service prices, in deciding how soon it will phase out stimulus. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.11(Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.11 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.31(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 149.09(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Wednesday supported by strong corporate earnings, while investors were cautious ahead of key euro-zone economic data and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress.
At (GMT 13:22 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.06 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices gained on Wednesday to trade near previous session's record highs as markets expect Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony later in the day to reveal clues on a potential June rate cut.
Spot gold was gained 0.3% to $2,132.80 per ounce, as of 1249 GMT after hitting a historic high of $2,141.59 per ounce in the prior session. U.S. gold futures were steady at $2,141.60.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday after four days of declines as signs of supply tightness amid output cuts by major producers overrode demand concerns in China and the U.S., the world's two biggest crude consumers.
Brent crude futures were up 53 cents, or 0.65%, to $82.57 a barrel at 0922 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 64 cents, or 0.82%, to $78.79 a barrel, after declining the past two days.
