Market Roundup
• German WPI (MoM) (Mar): 2.7%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
• German WPI (YoY) (Mar): 4.1%, 1.2% forecast
• Spanish CPI (YoY) (Mar): 3.4%, 3.3% forecast, 2.3% previous
• Spanish HICP (YoY) (Mar): 3.4%, 3.3% forecast, 2.5% previous
• Spanish HICP (MoM) (Mar): 1.7%, 1.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
• Spanish CPI (MoM) (Mar): 1.2%, 1.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
• Spanish Core CPI (YoY) (Mar): 2.9%, 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
•US PPI (MoM) (Mar): 0.5%, 1.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US Core PPI (MoM) (Mar): 0.1%, 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Mar): 3.6%, 3.5% previous
•US PPI (YoY) (Mar): 4.0%, 4.6% forecast, 3.4% previous
•US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Mar): 0.2%, 0.5% previous
•US Core PPI (YoY) (Mar): 3.8%, 4.2% forecast, 3.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 7.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•14:45 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
•15:00 EU ECB's Lane Speaks
•15:15 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
•16:30 EU ECB's Lane Speaks
•17:00 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•17:10 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
•17:45 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened on Tuesday as dollar eased as hopes of US-Iran talks lifted sentiment. Negotiating teams from the U.S. and Iran could return to Islamabad later this week, five sources said on Tuesday, days after talks between the two countries ended with no breakthrough.European markets have weathered significant headwinds since the war erupted in late February, largely because of the region's heavy reliance on energy imports. The report reinforced hopes for a resolution after U.S. and Pakistani officials had said earlier that efforts were being made to resolve the conflict. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1841(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1900(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1768(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1756(Daily low).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose against a slightly weaker U.S. dollar on Tuesday, trading at levels last seen before the Iran war as markets hoped for a resolution to the conflict. Negotiating teams from the U.S. and Iran could return to Islamabad later this week, days after the highest-level talks between the two countries in decades ended without a breakthrough. Britain's dependence on energy imports has kept the pound under pressure for much of the conflict, during which oil and gas prices have risen sharply. The dollar, meanwhile, had been broadly strengthening, although hopes the conflict will be resolved have sent the safe-haven currency lower again. U.S. crude futures fell 2.3% to $96.78 per barrel. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3591(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3677(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3532(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3505(Daily low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose higher on Tuesday buoyed by signs that Washington and Tehran were open to negotiating an end to the conflict, a day after the U.S. military began a blockade of Iranian ports. Australia’s confidence indicators plunged as the Iran war triggered a global oil shock, raising recession fears and complicating the policy outlook as officials weigh further rate hikes to curb inflation.A survey by National Australia Bank showed business confidence tumbled 29 points to -29 in March, the second-largest monthly drop on record, with similar declines last seen during the Global Financial Crisis and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment fell 12.5% to 80.1 in April, the lowest in over two years, while appetite for big-ticket purchases dropped 15% as households tightened spending.The weak data heightened concerns that simultaneous supply and demand shocks could push the economy toward stagflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7068 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7093(April 11 t high ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6980(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6896(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower on Tuesday as the dollar weakened, driven by growing expectations that a U.S.–Iran agreement could eventually be reached.U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. military began a blockade of ships leaving Iran's ports on Monday, but added that Iran had been in touch and wanted to make a deal.The series of comments "has brought some relief to the markets, as it has renewed the possibility of a diplomatic resolution. The yen found added support from potential intervention risks as USD/JPY tested the 160 level, previously associated with action by Japanese policymakers.Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted the importance of monitoring the economic impact of the Iran conflict, cautioning that higher oil prices may dampen Japan’s growth prospects. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.21(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.08(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares rallied as investors welcomed signs of possible Middle East peace talks, even as LVMH and other companies warned of fallout from the war.
At GMT (13:40) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.13 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.14 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.80 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as signs of renewed talks to resolve the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran eased supply concerns linked to the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
Brent crude futures lost $1.52, or 1.5%, to $98.25 a barrel by 1235 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $3.06, or 3.1%, to $96.02.
Gold rose on Tuesday, rebounding from a near one-week low, as a weaker dollar and softer oil prices—driven by hopes of a U.S.–Iran resolution eased inflation concerns.
Spot gold was up 0.9% at $4,782.19 per ounce as of 1128 GMT, after rising more than 1% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for June delivery rose 0.8% to $4,804.70.
