Market Roundup
• US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
• US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb): 3.0%, 3.0% forecast, 3.1% previous
• US GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 0.5%, 0.7% forecast, 4.4% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 219K, 210K forecast, 203K previous
• US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US Personal Spending (MoM) (Feb): 0.5%, 0.6% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb): 2.8%, 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
• US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4): 3.7%, 3.8% forecast, 3.7% previous
• US Core PCE Prices (Q4): 2.7%, 2.7% forecast, 2.9% previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,794K, 1,840K forecast, 1,832K previous
• US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q4): 5.7%, 4.7% previous
• US Personal Income (MoM) (Feb): -0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
• US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Feb): 0.1%, –, 0.0% previous
• US Real Consumer Spending (Q4): 1.9%, 2.0% forecast, 3.5% previous
• US PCE Prices (Q4): 2.9%, 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous
• US GDP Sales (Q4): 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 4.5% previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 209.50K, 208.00K previous
• US Dallas Fed PCE (Feb): 1.80%, 2.70% previous
• US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Feb): 0.8%, -0.5% forecast, -0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 01:30 Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Feb): 29.7% forecast, -7.2% previous
• 01:30 Australia Private House Approvals (Feb): 0.2% forecast , 1.1% previous
• 01:30 Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Feb): 14.00% forecast , -15.70% previous
•01:30 China CPI (MoM) (Mar): -0.2% forecast, 1.0% previous
•01:30 China CPI (YoY) (Mar): 1.2%, forecast, 1.3% previous
•01:30 China PPI (YoY) (Mar): 0.4% forecast , -0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the dollar on Thursday as investors kept a close eye on any developments in the Middle East that could jeopardize the current truce in the Iran war.Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stood at well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday despite a U.S.-Iran ceasefire as Tehran asserted its control by warning ships to keep to its territorial waters.Israel bombed more targets in Lebanon, which Tehran says must be included in the ceasefire, putting it into further jeopardy.High oil prices pose a risk to the inflation picture, as well as the overall economy, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to justify any rate cuts.On the data front, the personal consumption expenditures price index climbed 0.4%, matching expectations, after an unrevised 0.3% gain in January while weekly initial jobless claims rose 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 219,000, above the 210,000 estimate.r. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1677(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1717(April 8thhigh).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1565(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1546(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: The pound inched higher on Thursday as the dollar lost after Israel sought peace talks with Lebanon and renewed hopes for the fragile Gulf truce.Investor optimism about the prospects for Middle East peace returned late in the U.S. morning when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he wanted Israel to begin peace talks with Lebanon that would also include the disarming of Hezbollah, which is linked to Iran.The announcement shook off some market anxiety the day after an Israeli bombardment of Lebanon killed more than 300 people and appeared to place Donald Trump's U.S.-Iran peace process in jeopardy. Iran had indicated that Lebanon should be part of the ceasefire that was announced on Tuesday night..Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3421(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.35465(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3315(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3180(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to a two-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as investors pinned hopes on the ceasefire holding in the Middle East and awaited domestic jobs data.The U.S. dollar added to its losses from the previous day against a basket of major currencies. Safe-haven demand had helped boost the U.S. currency in recent weeks.Despite the truce, there were concerns that energy flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz would remain restricted. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, was up 3.4% at $97.57 a barrel. Canada's employment report for March, due on Friday, could offer additional clues on the state of the economy. Economists expect a gain of 15,000 jobs after the economy shed 84,000 in February.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3825(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3872(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3799 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3727(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rose higher on Thursday as traders kept their eyes fixed on whether the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran would hold, a day after its announcement sent the dollar tumbling across the board, setting it on track for its worst week since the conflict began in late February.The deal appeared to be on thin ice, as Israel bombed more targets in Lebanon, and there was no sign Iran had lifted its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused the worst-ever disruption to global energy supplies.Iranian negotiators were expected to set off later on Thursday for Pakistan for the first peace talks of the war, but Tehran said there would be no deal as long as Israel was striking Lebanon. The Japanese yen lost ground, with the dollar up 0.27% at 159.02 yen, having briefly dropped below 158 on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.21 (SMA20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.74(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 157.98(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European shares retreated on Thursday, after their strongest rally in over four years, as investors remained wary about a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire and its implications for oil prices and global inflation.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.14 percent, France’s CAC finished the day donw by 0.22 percent.
U.S. stocks rose on Thursday as progress toward a peaceful resolution in the Middle East eased concerns over the fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.58 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.62 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.83 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose over 1% on Thursday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, as investors weighed the fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire and awaited U.S. CPI data.
Spot gold was up 1.6% at $4,789.67 per ounce at 1:30 p.m. ET (1730 GMT),after hitting a near three-week high in the previous session.U.S. gold futures > settled 0.9% higher at $4,818.00.
Oil rose 1% on Thursday but stayed below $100 for a second straight session, as a fragile Middle East ceasefire held and Israel signalled imminent talks with Lebanon.
U.S. crude settled up 3.66%, or $3.46, at $97.89 a barrel, well below the $102.70 peak for the day, and Brent , after rising earlier to $99.50, settled for the day at $95.92 per barrel, up 1.23%, or $1.17.
