Market Roundup
• US CPI (MoM) (Mar): 0.9%, 1.0% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Core CPI (MoM) (Mar): 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US CPI (YoY) (Mar): 3.3%, 3.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
•Canada Unemployment Rate (Mar): 6.7%, 6.8% forecast, 6.7% previous
•Canada Employment Change (Mar): 14.1K, 14.5K forecast, -83.9K previous
•US Core CPI (YoY) (Mar): 2.6%, 2.7% forecast, 2.5% previous
•Canada Part Time Employment Change (Mar): 15.2K, 24.5K previous
•Canada Full Employment Change (Mar): -1.1K, -108.4K previous
•Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employee (Mar): 5.1%, , 4.2% previous
•Canada Participation Rate (Mar): 64.9%, 64.9% previous
•US Real Earnings (MoM) (Mar): -0.9%, 0.1% previous
•US Core CPI Index (Mar): 334.17, 333.51 previous
•US CPI Index, NSA (Mar): 330.21, 330.41 forecast, 326.79 previous
•US CPI, NSA (MoM) (Mar): 1.05%, 0.47% previous
•US CPI Index, SA (Mar): 330.29, 327.46 previous
•US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr): 4.8%, 4.2% forecast, 3.8% previous
•US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr): 3.4%, 3.4% forecast, 3.2% previous
•US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr): 47.6, 51.6 forecast, 53.3 previous
•US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Apr): 46.1, 51.7 previous
•US Factory Orders (MoM) (Feb): 0.0%, -0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US Michigan Current Conditions (Apr): 50.1, 55.8 previous
•US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Feb): 0.9%, , 0.8% previous
•US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Feb): -1.1%, -1.2% previous
•US Factory Orders Ex Transportation (MoM) (Feb): 1.2%, 0.5% previous
•US Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Mar): 0.2%, 0.2% previous
•US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 411, 411 previous
•US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 545, 548 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No data ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed on Friday as investors anxiously awaited U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for the weekend, while U.S. inflation data surged as expected due to the recent jump in energy prices.. Consumer prices rose 0.3% in February. Tehran and Washington delegations are due to meet for peace talks on Saturday. Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf arrived in Islamabad on Friday. Israel said on Thursday that it was seeking talks with Lebanon as Iran has cited Israel's continuing attacks on Lebanon as a key sticking point in its ceasefire agreement with the United States.The war's effect on prices is already being felt. U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in nearly four years in March, while China's factory-gate prices rose for the first time in 3-1/2 years in March, official data showed earlier. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1741(Daily high)), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1565(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1546(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against the dollar on Friday as hopes grew that upcoming U.S.-Iran talks could ease Middle East tensions.Market sentiment improved after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled the start of peace talks with Lebanon and discussions on Hezbollah’s disarmament, despite ongoing clashes.His move followed Israel’s largest strike of the conflict in Lebanon, with officials pushing for a temporary ceasefire to enable broader negotiations. Meanwhile, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that continued Israeli attacks violate the truce and could derail upcoming talks.EU diplomat Kaja Kallas also called for extending the U.S.-Iran ceasefire to Lebanon and urged steps toward Hezbollah’s disarmament. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3510(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3531(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3373(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3220(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday as investors digested soft domestic jobs data and looked ahead to U.S.-Iran peace talks, though it retained most of its weekly gains.Iran added uncertainty to the negotiations by insisting that its frozen assets be released and a ceasefire take hold in Lebanon before talks scheduled in Pakistan can proceed. Oil prices, a key driver for Canada’s economy, rose 0.9% to $98.75 per barrel amid concerns over Saudi supply disruptions and restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but remained on track for their largest weekly decline since June.Meanwhile, Canada’s economy added 14,100 jobs in March, broadly in line with expectations, following a sharp loss of 83,900 jobs in February, while the unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3864(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3980(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3806 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3748(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Friday while the Japanese yen weakened, as investors awaited the outcome of weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad.U.S. and Iranian officials are set to meet in Pakistan on Saturday, while Israel has agreed to hold discussions with Lebanon’s government, raising hopes of easing regional tensions.On the data front, U.S. inflation surged in March, with consumer prices posting their biggest monthly increase in nearly four years, driven by higher oil prices amid the Iran conflict and ongoing tariff effects—reducing expectations of a rate cut this year.The Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% last month, marking the largest gain since June 2022, when prices spiked during the Russia-Ukraine war. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.28(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.48(April 9th low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.06(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European equities edged lower on Friday as investors cautious ahead of U.S.-Iran weekend talks outweighed frictions in a fragile ceasefire.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.1 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.17 percent.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.56 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.12 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.35 percent.
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with investors pressing pause as they headed into the weekend and kept an eye on ongoing Middle East peace negotiations.
Commodities Recap
Gold held firm on Friday and was on track for weekly gains as the dollar softened after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, while markets continued to evaluate its longevity and rate implications.
Spot gold steadied at $4,761.79 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. ET (1740 GMT). It has gained nearly 2% so far this week.U.S. gold futures settled 0.6% lower at $4,787.40.
Oil futures closed lower on Friday, recording their steepest weekly drop since 2022 as markets looked ahead to U.S.-Iran talks aimed at securing a lasting ceasefire.
