Market Roundup
•HCOB France Services PMI (Feb): 49.6, 49.1 forecast, 48.4 previous.
• HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 49.9, 50.9 forecast, 51.2 previous.
• HCOB France Composite PMI (Feb): 49.9, 49.7 forecast, 49.1 previous.
• HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 50.7, 49.6 forecast, 49.1 previous.
• HCOB Germany Services PMI (Feb): 53.4, 52.4 forecast, 52.4 previous.
• HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Feb): 53.1, 52.3 forecast, 52.1 previous.
• HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 50.8, 49.9 forecast, 49.5 previous.
• HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Feb): 51.8, 51.9 forecast, 51.6 previous.
• HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Feb): 51.9, 51.5 forecast, 51.3 previous.
• Greek Current Account (YoY) (Dec): -3.862B, -2.078B previous.
• S&P Global UK Composite PMI (Feb): 53.9, 53.3 forecast, 53.7 previous.
• S&P Global UK Services PMI (Feb): 53.9, 53.5 forecast, 54.0 previous.
• S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 52.0, 51.5 forecast, 51.8 previous.
• US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous.
• US GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 1.4%, 2.8% forecast, 4.4% previous.
• US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Dec): 3.0%, 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous.
• Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec): 0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 1.6% previous.
• Canada RMPI (MoM) (Jan): 7.7%, 0.7% forecast, 0.3% previous.
• Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec): -0.4%, -0.5% forecast, 1.2% previous.
• Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec): -0.4%, 1.2% previous.
• US Personal Spending (MoM) (Dec): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous.
• US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Dec): 2.9%, 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous.
•US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous.
• US Core PCE Prices (Q4): 2.70%, 2.60% forecast, 2.90% previous.
• US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4): 3.7%, 2.8% forecast, 3.7% previous.
• Canada RMPI (YoY) (Jan): 8.0%, 3.5% previous.
• Canada IPPI (YoY) (Jan): 5.4%, 4.3% previous.
• Canada IPPI (MoM) (Jan): 2.7%, 0.2% forecast, -0.9% previous.
• US Personal Income (MoM) (Dec): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.
• US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Dec): 0.1%, 0.2% previous.
• US Real Consumer Spending (Q4): 2.4%, 3.5% previous.
• US GDP Sales (Q4): 1.2%, 4.5% previous.
• US PCE Prices (Q4): 2.9%, 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Friday, pressured by uncertainty surrounding European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s tenure. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Lagarde said she intends to complete her mandate through the end of her term, amid speculation she could step down early.Her remarks followed a report by Financial Times suggesting she might leave before her contract expires in October 2027, potentially ahead of France’s next presidential election to allow Emmanuel Macron influence over her successor.Separately, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, recently announced plans to step down, opening the door for Macron to appoint a new head of France’s central bank.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1801(Feb 19th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1832(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1742(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1676(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound hovered near a one-month low against the dollar on Friday and was set for its biggest weekly drop since January 2025, as investors digested mixed economic data and increased bets on Bank of England rate cuts.Retail sales data showed volumes rose 4.5% year-on-year in January the fastest annual pace in nearly four years and climbed 1.8% month-on-month, both beating expectations. However, broader data released during the week painted a softer economic picture.The UK jobless rate edged higher in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the previous three months, wage growth slowed, and inflation eased to its lowest level in nearly a year, reinforcing dovish expectations for the Bank of England’s monetary policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3560(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3638(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3427 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3380(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Friday as Australian dollar weighed down by a stronger US dollar and weaker domestic PMI data. Greenback was buoyed by a run of better-than-expected economic data, a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and as tensions between the U.S. and Iran kept markets on edge. The S&P Global Flash Australia Composite PMI fell to 52.0 in February from 55.7 in January, signaling expansion for a seventeenth month but at a softer pace than the start of 2026.Looking ahead, monthly consumer price index will be released on February 28, followed by the gross domestic product report on March 4, ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next meeting on March 17.Markets imply a 76% chance of the Reserve Bank of Australia hiking the 3.85% cash rate in May, and even March has nudged up to 28%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7202(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7068(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar gained some ground on Friday after data showed the Japan's annual core consumer inflation hit 2.0% in January. Japan’s annual core consumer inflation fell to a two-year low, matching the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in January, according to Friday’s data.The year-on-year rise in Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI), excluding volatile fresh food, matched the median market forecast at 2% in January, down from December’s 2.4% increase.The data comes amid mixed signals in the economy, which showed minimal growth in the final quarter of last year, while exports surged and manufacturers’ confidence has strengthened so far in 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.03(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.96(SMA 20) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.78 (61.8%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.12 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks recovered while oil prices declined on Friday as investors reassessed the likelihood of a U.S. strike on Iran, following heightened geopolitical tensions triggered by threats from President Donald Trump during ongoing nuclear deal talks.
At GMT (13:15) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.59 percent, Germany's Dax was upby 0.47 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.97 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices advanced on Friday after U.S. GDP data missed expectations, even as inflation figures came in stronger than forecast, with investors also monitoring escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $5,039.42 an ounce by 09:04 a.m. (1404 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery were up 1.3% at $5,060.10.
Oil prices hovered near six-month highs on Friday and were set for their first weekly gain in three weeks, as rising concerns over a potential conflict intensified after Washington warned Tehran of consequences if it failed to reach a nuclear deal within days.
Brent crude futures edged down 33 cents, or around 0.5%, to $71.33 a barrel by 1343 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $66.18.
