Dollar Slides as Fed Independence Fears Lift Euro to 3-Year High

The U.S. dollar fell to multi-year lows on Thursday as currency traders fretted over political pressure on the Federal Reserve and the potential ouster of Chair Jerome Powell. A Wall Street Journal report said President Donald Trump had considered naming Powell’s replacement by early autumn, a move analysts warn could erode the Fed’s credibility and shake global confidence in U.S. monetary policy.

Kieran Williams of InTouch Capital Markets noted that an early, politically tipped appointment “would recalibrate rate expectations and spark a reassessment of dollar positioning.” Traders have already raised the implied probability of a July Fed rate cut to 25%—up from 12% a week ago—and now expect roughly 64 basis points of easing by year-end.

Against this backdrop, the euro advanced 0.2% to $1.1687, its strongest level since October 2021, while sterling climbed to a 29-month peak at $1.3690. The dollar index sank to 97.491, its weakest reading since early 2022. Safe-haven flows pushed the Swiss franc to 0.8033 per dollar, its best showing versus the greenback since 2011, and to a record high against the yen near 180.55. The dollar also slipped 0.2% against the yen to 144.89.

Trump’s looming July 9 tariff deadline added to market anxiety. JPMorgan analysts warned that higher duties could slow U.S. growth, lift inflation, and raise the probability of recession to 40%, ending what they call “a phase of U.S. exceptionalism.”

Dollar weakness has become a central market theme as investors question the currency’s reserve-status dominance. Europe, meanwhile, is attracting inflows on expectations that increased defense and infrastructure spending will support regional growth, further boosting the euro’s appeal in forex markets.