Market Roundup
- Japan June Retail Sales YY, 1.8%, 1.6% forecast, 0.6% previous.
- Trump threatens U.S. government shutdown over border wall.
- Italy's interior minister says EU trying to "swindle" Britain.
- Merkel's conservatives hit 12-year low in German poll.
- China's policy easing fails to whet appetite for private firms' bonds.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0245 ET/0645 GMT) France July CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY, 2.4% forecast, 2.3% previous.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden GDP mm, yy.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK BOE consumer credit, mortgage lending, mortgage approvals, M4 money supply.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) EZ July Business Climate, 1.35 forecast, 1.39 previous.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) EZ July Economic Sentiment, 112.0 forecast, 112.3 previous.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) EZ July Industrial Sentiment, 6.7 forecast, 6.9 previous.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) EZ July Services Sentiment, 14.2 forecast, 14.4 previous.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) EZ July Consumer Confidence final, -0.6 forecast, -0.6 previous.
- (0800 ET/1200 GMT) Germany July CPI Prelim MM, 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous.
- (0800 ET/1200 GMT) Germany July HICP Prelim MM, 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous.
Key Events Ahead
- No major events are scheduled.
FX Recap
USD: The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stood little changed at 94.720, after dipping slightly on Friday.
EUR/USD: The euro was flat at $1.1662, after gaining modestly on Friday. A consistent close below $1.1653 will drag the parity down towards key supports around $1.1540, $1.1390 and $1.1185 levels respectively. Alternatively, reversal from key support will drag the parity higher towards key resistances around $1.1738, $1.1852, $1.1938 and $1.1996 marks respectively.
USD/JPY: The Japanese yen trades marginally lower in early Asia despite robust retail sales data. It made intraday high at 111.16 and low at 110.89 levels. A sustained close above 111.22 is required to take the parity higher towards key resistance around 112.62 and 114.72 marks respectively. Alternatively, a daily close below 110.97 will drag the parity down towards key supports around 110.27, 109.24, 108.72 and 107.90 marks respectively.
GBP/USD: The pound remains unchanged at $1.3113 mark. Sterling posted its third straight weekly loss last week, hit by concerns about the progress of Brexit talks. It will be looking for some relief on Thursday, when the BoE is widely expected to raise interest rates for only the second time since the 2008 financial crisis. A sustained close below $1.3107 requires for dragging the parity down towards key support around $1.2957 mark. On the other side, key resistances are seen at $1.3187, $1.3215, $1.3362 and $1.3490 levels respectively.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar declined 0.15 percent to $0.7393, trimming some of its gains after rising roughly 0.4 percent on Friday against a broadly sagging dollar. The Australian dollar held at $0.7400, from a 1-1/2 year trough of $0.7318 touched earlier this month. The Aussie has traded in a narrow range of $0.7311 to $0.7484 since mid-June. Technical analysts see critical chart support around $0.7320, a breach below could see sharp losses. The pair made intraday high at $0.7405 and low at $0.7385 levels.
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar rose 0.2 percent to $0.6804, after posting a weekly loss of 0.3 percent last week. It hit a two-year low of $0.6688 earlier this month. The kiwi has stayed trapped in a small band of $0.6688 and $0.6859 in recent weeks. Pair made intraday high at $0.6806 and low at $0.6791 levels. A sustained close above $0.6835 is required to take the parity higher towards $0.7050 mark. Alternatively reversal key resistance will take the parity down towards key supports around $0.6687 levels.
Equities Recap
Japan’s Nikkei was trading 0.71 pct lower at 22,552.50 points.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was trading 0.37 pct lower at 6,276.85 points.
Shanghai composite index to open down 0.1 pct at 2,871.94 points and China's CSI300 index to open flat at 3,520.85 points.
Taiwanese stock was trading around 0.52 percent lower at 11,017.93 points.
Hong Kong’s Hang seng was trading 0.62 pct lower at 28,617.55 points.
India’s NSE Nifty was trading around 0.20 percent higher at 11,301.22 points while BSE Sensex was trading 0.26 points higher at 37,434.82 points.
South Korea’s Kospi was trading 0.12 percent lower at 2,292.94 points.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices were mixed on Monday with U.S. benchmark WTI nudging higher after four weeks of declines, while Brent began the week lower as the fallout from trade tensions weighed on markets. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $68.84 a barrel by 0309 GMT. WTI fell 1.3 percent on Friday. Brent crude futures fell 5 cents to $74.24 a barrel, after notching up a 1.7 percent weekly increase last week, the first gain in four weeks.
Gold prices slipped on Monday as the dollar stood tall against its peers ahead of key central bank meetings and U.S. inflation and payrolls data this week. Spot gold was down about 0.3 percent at $1,219.91 an ounce at 0335 GMT. U.S. gold futures were 0.3 percent lower at $1,219.10 an ounce.
Treasuries Recap
New Zealand government bonds gained, sending yields about 1 basis point lower across the curve.
Australian government bond futures eased, with the three-year bond contract off 2 ticks at 97.890. The 10-year contract slipped half a tick to 97.345.
