Market Roundup
•Swiss April CPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.1%forecast,0.0% previous
•Swiss Mar Retail Sales (YoY) -0.1%,0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•Swiss April CPI (YoY) 1.4%,1.1% forecast,1.0% previous
•Italian Apr Manufacturing PMI 47.3,50.3 forecast,50.4 previous
•French Apr Manufacturing PMI 45.3,44.9 forecast,46.2 previous
•German Apr Manufacturing PMI 42.5,42.2 forecast,41.9 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Mar Exports 66.62B previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q1)0.8% forecast,3.2% previous
•12:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1)3.6% forecast,0.4% previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Imports 65.23B previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Trade Balance 1.10B forecast,1.39B previous
•12:30 US Mar Trade Balance -69.50B forecast,-68.90B previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 212K forecast,207K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,800K forecast,1,781K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 213.25K previous
•12:30 US Imports 331.90B previous
•12:30 US Exports 263.00B previous
•14:00 US Mar Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 1.1% previous
•14:00 US Mar Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.3% previous
•14:00 US Mar Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 2.3% previous
•14:00 US Mar Factory Orders (MoM) 1.6% forecast,1.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•12:45 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
•12:45 BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Thursday after a survey showed the ongoing downturn in euro zone manufacturing activity deepened in April. The downturn in manufacturing activity across the euro zone deepened in April due to crumbling demand despite factories cutting prices, pushing firms to reduce headcount again, a survey showed on Thursday.But it was something of a patchwork decline in the region with the situation deteriorating in France and Italy while in Germany the sector moved closer to expanding. Spain was an outlier, activity there expanded at its fastest pace in almost two years thanks to an uplift in demand.HCOB's final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to 45.7 in April from March's 46.1, below the 50 mark denoting growth in activity for a 22nd month. However, it was just ahead of a 45.6 preliminary estimate. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0721(50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0751(61.8% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0650 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0635(23.6% fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound slipped against the dollar, having risen the day before after the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, while investors were playing down the impact UK local elections on Thursday might have on the currency.The pound was last down 0.1% against the dollar at $1.2509, having risen 0.3% the day before after Fed Chair Jerome Powell ruled out hiking interest rates, which weighed on the U.S. dollar. While the Fed signalled that U.S. interest rates would be held at higher levels for longer, investors are looking to the Bank of England's meeting next week for clues on when its policy easing could begin. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2569 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2655(50 % fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2488 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2464 (23.6 % fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Thursday after the Federal Reserve shot down talk of more interest rate hikes. The U.S. central bank's rate setters unanimously decided to leave rates in the 5.25% to 5.5% range they have been in since July, but it was the post-meeting press conference that proved most interesting.While Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated that stubbornly high inflation would see a long-expected U.S. rate cut pushed back, he refused to entertain talk that rates might actually need to go up again.He also said the Fed would scale back the pace of quantitative tightening or 'QT' of its balance sheet starting on June 1, allowing only $25 billion in Treasury bonds to run off each month versus the current $60 billion. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9172(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9194(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9104(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9038(50% fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against yen against on Thursday,with traders and analysts attributing the movement to potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The gap between long-term government bond yields in the two countries is 371 basis points. That helped lift the dollar to a 34-year peak of 160.245 yen on Monday and also spurred a sharp reversal, which official data suggested was because of Japanese intervention totalling about $35 billion. The MOF likely intervened in the currency market to signal they see 160 yen per dollar as their line in the sand, Columbia University academic and former finance ministry executive Takatoshi Ito told Reuters in an interview on Thursday. Strong resistance can be seen at 155.64 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.67(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.14(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 153.06(May 1st low).
Equities Recap
European shares flitted in a tight range on Thursday, after falling to a one-week low in early trade, as investors returned from a mid-week holiday to gauge a slew of earnings and the Federal Reserve signalling a delay in interest rate cuts.
At (GMT 12:22 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.39 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.14 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.65 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose on Thursday, rebounding from three days of losses that took prices to their lowest since mid-March.
Brent crude futures for July gained 58 cents, or 0.7%, to $84.02 a barrel by 1130 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June was up 47 cents, or 0.6%, at $79.47.
