Market Roundup
•Swiss Apr Unemployment Rate n.s.a 2.3%,2.4%previous
•UK Apr Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 0.1% ,0.2% forecast,-1.0% previous
•German Mar Factory Orders (MoM) -0.4%,0.4% forecast,0.2% previous
•German Mar Trade Balance 22.3B,22.4B forecast,21.4B previous
•UK Apr Halifax House Price Index (YoY) 1.1%, 0.4% previous
•German Mar Exports (MoM) 0.9%,0.4% forecast,-2.0% previous
•German Mar Imports (MoM) 0.3%,-1.0% forecast,3.2% previous
•French Mar Imports 57.7B,56.3B previous
•French Mar French Exports 52.2B forecast, 51.1B previous
• French Mar Current Account 1.30B,0.90B previous
• French Mar French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q1)0.2%, 0.0% forecast,0.0% previous
•UK Apr Construction PMI 53.0, 50.4 forecast,50.2 previous
•EU Mar Retail Sales (MoM) 0.8%,0.6% forecast,-0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 5.5% previous
•14:00 Canada Apr Ivey PMI 58.1 forecast,57.5 previous
•14:00 Canada Apr Ivey PMI n.s.a 63.0 previous
•14:00 US May IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 44.1 forecast,43.2 previous
•14:00 GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•15:30 USFOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
•19:30 Canada BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Tuesday as euro was supported by as better-than-expected Eurozone retail sales and hopes of an ECB interest rate cut. Retail sales in the Eurozone showed their most significant monthly rise since September 2022, suggesting positive economic trends in consumer spending. Eurostat’s data, released on Tuesday, showed that retail sales in the euro area rose by 0.8% in March compared to the previous month. This recovery follows a revised 0.3% decrease in February and surpassed market predictions of a 0.6% increase. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0810(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0888(23.650% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0751 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0723(April 2nd low).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday before the Bank of England's policy announcement on Thursday as markets moved to fully price in two quarter-point rate cuts this year.A survey of economists polled by Reuters expects the BoE to keep interest rates unchanged when it announces its decision this week, but analysts expect the central bank to leave the door open to lower interest rates as early as June.Traders price in 53 basis points of easing this year, implying at least two quarter-point cuts, having previously fully priced only one after inflation data last month showed prices slowed by less than expected in March. The pound was last down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.2534. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2582 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2655(23.6 % fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2531 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2480 ( 61.8% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as traders expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer to combat inflationary pressures. U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell left interest rates steady last week, and flagged that rate cuts could be postponed due to persistent inflation in the first quarter. New York Fed President John Williams on Monday said that at some undefined point the U.S. central bank will lower its rate target, but for now monetary policy is in a very good place, while Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the battle against inflation will likely require a hit to demand. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9072(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9132( 23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9008(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8952(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Tuesday as yen weakened despite fresh warnings from Japanese officials following two rounds of suspected dollar-selling intervention last week. Japan's finance ministry has refrained from commenting on whether it was behind the dollar selling, but top currency diplomat Masato Kanda repeated on Tuesday that the government will continue to take the same firm approach" to disorderly yen moves. He also acknowledged that an orderly market would not require the government to step in. The U.S. dollar was last up 0.4% at 154.51 yen , adding to its 0.6% gain on Monday. Strong resistance can be seen at 153.74 (May 6th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.62(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 151.26(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares hit a more-than-one-month high on Tuesday, as a slew of positive corporate earnings, including from Switzerland's UBS and Italy's UniCredit, added to the upbeat sentiment surrounding interest rate cuts. r.
At (GMT 12:22 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.21 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.68 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.36 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil steadied on Tuesday as weakness in the physical market countered concern about conflict in the Middle East as Israel stepped up attacks in southern Gaza and a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel hung in the balance.
Brent crude futures were down 30 cents, or 0.4%, at $83.03 a barrel by 1130 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.21.
