Asia Roundup: Dollar firms against Japanese yen ahead of US inflation print,Asia shares rise, Gold edge lower, Oil steady-September 10h,2024

Market Roundup

• New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Volume (QoQ) (Q2)    0.6%, -0.3% previous 
     
•Japan M2 Money Stock (YoY)    1.3%,1.5% forecast, 1.5% previous

• Australian Sep Westpac Consumer Sentiment  -0.5%, 2.8% previous

•China Exports (Aug): 8.40M, previous 6.50M

•China Imports (Aug): 0.00M, previous 6.60M

•China Trade Balance (Aug): 649.34B,  582.00B forecast, 601.90B previous

•China Exports (YoY) (Aug): 8.7%, 6.5% forecast, 7.0% previous

•China Imports (YoY) (Aug): 0.5%, 2.0%forecast, 7.2% previous

•China Trade Balance (USD) (Aug): 91.02B,    82.10B forecast, 84.65B previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)  

• 06:00 UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Jul): 5.4% previous

• 06:00 UK Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Jul): 4.1%, 4.5% previous

• 06:00 UK Claimant Count Change (Aug): 95.5K, 135.0K previous

• 06:00 UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Jul): 115Kforecast,  97K previous

•06:00 UK Unemployment Rate (Jul): 4.1% forecast,  4.2% previous

•06:00 German CPI (YoY) (Aug): 1.9%forecast,   2.3% previous

•06:00 German CPI (MoM) (Aug): -0.1%forecast,   0.3% previous

•06:00 German HICP (MoM) (Aug): -0.2%forecast, Previous 0.5% previous

•06:00 German HICP (YoY) (Aug): 2.0%forecast,  2.6% previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)

•No Events Ahead

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against the dollar on Tuesday   as investors brace for U.S. inflation data and reassess expectations of a large interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve starting next week. A mixed labor report on Friday did not provide a definitive indication of whether the Federal Reserve will implement a standard 25 basis point (bps) rate cut or a larger 50 bps cut at its September 17-18 policy meeting. Traders are now looking to Wednesday's U.S. consumer price index report for additional policy guidance, although the Fed has emphasized that employment has become a more significant focus than inflation. According to poll, the headline CPI is expected to have increased by 0.2% month-on-month in August, unchanged from the previous month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1118(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1185(Aug 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1039(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0958 (61.8%fib).

GBP/USD: Sterling eased slightly against the dollar on Tuesday   as investor’s awaited U.S. inflation data for more clues on the size of a likely Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. On Wednesday, the U.S. Labor Department's Consumer Price Index is expected to show underlying inflation remains on its meandering path back down toward the central bank's 2% goal . The Federal Reserve is all but certain to ease rates when it meets next week, with markets pricing in a 29% chance of an outsized 50-basis-point move. About 110bps worth of cuts are priced in for the rest of the year. (At GMT 02:40)sterling eased 0.06% to $1.3065.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.32236(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3265(Aug 27th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3092(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3052(61.8%fib).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar declined on Tuesday as stronger greenback and downbeat  domestic data weighed on Australian dollar. Australian consumer sentiment remained subdued in September, with concerns about the economy and job market persisting despite easing fears over higher interest rates, according to a survey released on Tuesday. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment fell by 0.4% in September, following a 2.8% increase in August. The index reading of 84.6 indicated that pessimists continued to outnumber optimists by a significant margin. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is not expected to raise rates further and shows no immediate intention to cut them either. The RBA has consistently indicated that a rate cut is unlikely this year.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6707(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6748(Sep 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6645(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6596(61.8%fib).

NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar slipped lower against greenback on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar gained strength ahead of the upcoming inflation data. Investors awaited U.S. inflation data for more clues on the size of a likely Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week.The U.S. Labor Department's Consumer Price Index is expected to show underlying inflation remains on its meandering path back down toward the central bank's 2% goal.At (GMT 02:31) Kiwi dollar was trading at down  0.17 % at $0.6135 against the U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6181(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6229 (Sep 5th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6125(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6060(61.8%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar inched higher against the yen on Tuesday as investors looked to August US inflation figures for clues about a potential Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. On Wednesday, attention will shift to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is anticipated to indicate that underlying inflation continues its gradual decline toward the central bank's 2% target. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) reading on Thursday will be closely watched. A report from the New York Federal Reserve released on Monday noted that public expectations for inflation remained stable last month, even as current price pressures eased. Dollar was last 0.11% up at 142.22 per yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 143.71 (Sep 9th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141.90(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 141.49 (Lower BB).

Equities Recap

Asian stocks recovered from early losses to post modest gains on Tuesday, buoyed by Wall Street's overnight rally. However, concerns about the ongoing struggles in the Chinese economy tempered overall sentiment. 

Japan's Nikkei   last traded 0.4% higher, Hang Seng was up  0.05% at 17,206.00
 
Commodities Recap

Gold prices eased on Tuesday, pressured by a firmer dollar, while traders braced for key U.S. inflation figures that could offer hints about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction next week.

Spot gold   dipped 0.1% to 2,503.09 per ounce, as of 0301 GMT. U.S. gold futures  remained steady at $2,532.20.

Oil was steady in early trade on Tuesday as investors weighed supply disruptions from Tropical Storm Francine and the potential for further output cuts against persistently weak Chinese demand.

Brent crude futures   rose 16 cents, or 0.22%, to $72.00 a barrel by 0004 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures   rose 12 cents, or 0.17%, to $68.83 a barrel.