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Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

US Election Series

US under Trump Series

US election final results: how Trump won

Dec 17, 2016 15:00 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the US election held on 8 November, Donald Trump won the Electoral College by 306 Electoral Votes (EVs), to 232 EVs for Hillary Clinton. While this seems a convincing victory, Trump won four states by 1.2% or less:...

Briferendum Series

Coalition likely to win following Brexit

Jun 28, 2016 20:49 pm UTC| Politics Insights & Views

The UKs vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) was known by the afternoon of the 24 June Melbourne time. The ReachTEL and Galaxy polls in the table were both taken entirely before the Brexit result was known. The one...

US Election Series

Clinton clinches Democratic nomination after big wins in New Jersey and California

Jun 08, 2016 11:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Hillary Clinton today clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination, following big wins in the two highest population states voting. She won New Jersey (126 pledged delegates) 63-37 and California (475) 56-43. She also...

UK elections: Labour wins London mayoralty, but otherwise mixed

May 13, 2016 09:50 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Elections were held in the UK last Thursday. At stake were the Scottish and Welsh assemblies, the Mayoralty of London and control of 124 English councils. Labours Sadiq Khan is the new Mayor of London, after defeating...

Election explainer: what are the opinion polls and how accurate are they?

May 12, 2016 00:17 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Business

Many opinion polls will be published during the election campaign. Most use either live phone polling (calls made by a human), robopolling (computer calls) or an online panel (poll sample selected from a large database of...

US Election Series

Trump, Clinton crush opponents in northeast

Apr 27, 2016 22:40 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, Donald Trump won majorities of the vote across all five northeastern states that voted. He won 64% in Rhode Island, 61% in Delaware, 58% in Connecticut, 57% in Pennsylvania and 54% in Maryland. Prior to getting 60%...

US Election Series

Trump, Clinton have emphatic wins in New York

Apr 21, 2016 00:23 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Yesterday, Donald Trump won over 60% of the vote in his home state of New York. John Kasich was a very distant second with 25%, and Ted Cruz third with under 15%. Trumps massive vote majority gave him all 14 statewide...

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Economy

Russia Stocks End Flat as MOEX Closes Unchanged Amid Mixed Global Signals

Russian stocks finished Saturdays trading session slightly lower overall, with the benchmark MOEX Russia Index closing unchanged at 0.00% in Moscow. Market sentiment remained cautious as investors weighed mixed...

China Factory Activity Slips in January as Weak Demand Weighs on Growth Outlook

Chinas factory activity contracted at the start of the year, highlighting persistent pressure from weak domestic demand despite continued policy support from Beijing. An official survey released on Saturday showed that...

U.S. Government Faces Brief Shutdown as Congress Delays Funding Deal

The United States government was on track for a partial shutdown early Saturday after Congress failed to finalize a funding agreement before the midnight deadline. Although the U.S. Senate ultimately passed a bipartisan...

Gold and Silver Prices Plunge as Trump Taps Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair

Gold and silver prices suffered a dramatic selloff on Friday after President Donald Trump nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, easing fears about the central banks...

Wall Street Slides as Warsh Fed Nomination, Hot Inflation, and Precious Metals Rout Shake Markets

Wall Street ended Friday on a weaker note as risk-off sentiment dominated trading, driven by hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data, a dramatic sell-off in precious metals, and major political developments surrounding...

Politics

Keir Starmer Urges Prince Andrew to Testify in U.S. Epstein Investigation

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has called for former Prince Andrew to testify before a U.S. congressional committee following new revelations about his long-standing links to disgraced financier and convicted sex...

U.S. Government Enters Brief Shutdown as Congress Delays Funding Deal

The U.S. government entered a partial shutdown early Saturday after Congress failed to finalize a funding agreement before a midnight deadline, temporarily halting a range of federal operations. The shutdown officially...

Zelenskiy Awaits U.S. Details as Ukraine Prepares for Possible Peace Talks Next Week

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday that Ukraine is awaiting further information from the United States regarding upcoming peace talks, signaling that new diplomatic meetings could take place as early...

Minnesota Judge Rejects Bid to Halt Trump Immigration Enforcement in Minneapolis

A federal judge in Minnesota has declined to order an immediate halt to President Donald Trumps expanded immigration enforcement operation in Minneapolis, dealing a setback to state and local officials who accuse federal...

Venezuela Proposes Amnesty Law and Plans to Transform Helicoide Prison

Venezuelas interim president Delcy Rodríguez announced on Friday a proposed amnesty law aimed at releasing hundreds of prisoners and easing political tensions in the country. Speaking at an event held at the Supreme...

Science

NASA and SpaceX Target Crew-11 Undocking From ISS Amid Medical Concern

NASA has confirmed that the agency, in coordination with SpaceX, is targeting no earlier than 5 p.m. Eastern Time (2200 GMT) on Wednesday, January 14, for the undocking of the SpaceX Crew-11 mission from the International...

Neuralink Plans High-Volume Brain Implant Production and Fully Automated Surgery by 2026

Elon Musks brain-computer interface company Neuralink is preparing for a major expansion, announcing plans to begin high-volume production of its brain implant devices and transition to a fully automated surgical procedure...

Jared Isaacman Confirmed as NASA Administrator, Becomes 15th Leader of U.S. Space Agency

The U.S. Senate has officially confirmed billionaire private astronaut Jared Isaacman as the new NASA administrator, making him the 15th leader in the agencys history. The confirmation, which took place on Wednesday, marks...

Senate Sets December 8 Vote on Trump’s NASA Nominee Jared Isaacman

The U.S. Senate Commerce Committee announced it will vote on December 8 on President Donald Trumps renewed nomination of private astronaut and tech entrepreneur Jared Isaacman to lead NASA. Isaacman, known for his...

NASA Cuts Boeing Starliner Missions as SpaceX Pulls Ahead

NASA has significantly scaled back Boeings Starliner program after years of technical issues and delays, announcing that the next Starliner mission to the International Space Station (ISS) will fly without astronauts. The...

Technology

Elon Musk’s Empire: SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI Merger Talks Spark Investor Debate

Speculation around a potential Musk Inc has resurfaced as Elon Musks companiesSpaceX, Tesla, and xAIexplore closer ties amid rapid advances in artificial intelligence and automation. With SpaceX expected to go public later...

SpaceX Reports $8 Billion Profit as IPO Plans and Starlink Growth Fuel Valuation Buzz

SpaceX delivered a strong financial performance last year, generating an estimated $8 billion in profit on revenues between $15 billion and $16 billion, according to people familiar with the companys results. The figures,...

SpaceX Updates Starlink Privacy Policy to Allow AI Training as xAI Merger Talks and IPO Loom

SpaceX has revised its Starlink privacy policy to allow customer data to be used for artificial intelligence training, a move that could significantly support Elon Musks broader AI ambitions. The policy change comes as...

Nvidia’s $100 Billion OpenAI Investment Faces Internal Doubts, Report Says

Nvidias ambitious plan to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, aimed at supporting the training and operation of next-generation artificial intelligence models, has reportedly hit a roadblock. According to a report...

Federal Judge Signals Possible Dismissal of xAI Lawsuit Against OpenAI

A U.S. federal judge has signaled she may dismiss a high-profile lawsuit filed by Elon Musks artificial intelligence startup, xAI, against rival OpenAI, dealing a potential setback to Musk in an escalating legal battle...