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Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

US Election Series

US under Trump Series

US election final results: how Trump won

Dec 17, 2016 15:00 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the US election held on 8 November, Donald Trump won the Electoral College by 306 Electoral Votes (EVs), to 232 EVs for Hillary Clinton. While this seems a convincing victory, Trump won four states by 1.2% or less:...

Briferendum Series

Coalition likely to win following Brexit

Jun 28, 2016 20:49 pm UTC| Politics Insights & Views

The UKs vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) was known by the afternoon of the 24 June Melbourne time. The ReachTEL and Galaxy polls in the table were both taken entirely before the Brexit result was known. The one...

US Election Series

Clinton clinches Democratic nomination after big wins in New Jersey and California

Jun 08, 2016 11:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Hillary Clinton today clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination, following big wins in the two highest population states voting. She won New Jersey (126 pledged delegates) 63-37 and California (475) 56-43. She also...

UK elections: Labour wins London mayoralty, but otherwise mixed

May 13, 2016 09:50 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Elections were held in the UK last Thursday. At stake were the Scottish and Welsh assemblies, the Mayoralty of London and control of 124 English councils. Labours Sadiq Khan is the new Mayor of London, after defeating...

Election explainer: what are the opinion polls and how accurate are they?

May 12, 2016 00:17 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Business

Many opinion polls will be published during the election campaign. Most use either live phone polling (calls made by a human), robopolling (computer calls) or an online panel (poll sample selected from a large database of...

US Election Series

Trump, Clinton crush opponents in northeast

Apr 27, 2016 22:40 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, Donald Trump won majorities of the vote across all five northeastern states that voted. He won 64% in Rhode Island, 61% in Delaware, 58% in Connecticut, 57% in Pennsylvania and 54% in Maryland. Prior to getting 60%...

US Election Series

Trump, Clinton have emphatic wins in New York

Apr 21, 2016 00:23 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Yesterday, Donald Trump won over 60% of the vote in his home state of New York. John Kasich was a very distant second with 25%, and Ted Cruz third with under 15%. Trumps massive vote majority gave him all 14 statewide...

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Economy

Russian LNG Shadow Fleet Expands Amid Arctic LNG 2 Sanctions

Russia is intensifying efforts to bypass Western energy sanctions after a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker operating under a newly adopted Russian flag was spotted loading fuel linked to the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2...

S&P 500, Nasdaq Hit Record Highs as AI Stocks Rally and Strong Jobs Data Boost Confidence

The SP 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs on Friday as investors poured into AI-related stocks and welcomed stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data, reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the American economy....

Dollar Slips as Strong U.S. Jobs Data Reduces Fed Rate Cut Expectations

The U.S. dollar weakened on Friday after stronger-than-expected April jobs data reduced speculation about potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Investor sentiment also improved after President Donald Trump stated...

European Stocks Fall as US-Iran Conflict Rekindles Energy Supply Fears

European stock markets closed lower on Friday as renewed military tensions between the United States and Iran rattled investor confidence and intensified concerns about global energy supplies. The escalating conflict...

Gold Prices Rise as Weaker Dollar and Iran Ceasefire Hopes Boost Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices climbed on Friday and were set for a strong weekly gain as the U.S. dollar weakened following the latest U.S. jobs report. Investors also turned to safe-haven assets amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East and...

Politics

Israel’s Secret Iraq Base Allegedly Supported Iran Air Campaign, WSJ Reports

Israel reportedly established a covert military outpost deep in the Iraqi desert to support its recent air campaign against Iran, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar with the operation,...

Senate Stablecoin Bill Sparks Clash Between Banks and Crypto Industry

A major fight over U.S. crypto regulation is heating up as lawmakers prepare to advance the CLARITY Act, a proposed bill designed to create a clear regulatory framework for digital assets and stablecoins. The legislation...

Trump-Xi Beijing Summit to Focus on Trade, Taiwan, and Boeing Deal

U.S. President Donald Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing from May 14 to May 15, marking the first visit by an American president to the Chinese capital in nearly ten years. According to Reuters,...

Trump Reportedly Approves Plan to Remove FDA Commissioner Marty Makary Amid Growing Controversies

President Donald Trump has reportedly approved a plan to remove U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Marty Makary, according to sources familiar with discussions inside the White House. While officials say...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

Science

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

Technology

AI-Driven Inflation Raises U.S. Consumer Prices, Goldman Sachs Says

Artificial intelligence is starting to increase U.S. consumer prices through rising costs in electronics, software, and electricity, according to a new Goldman Sachs report. The investment bank said AI-related inflation...

Judge Delays SEC Settlement With Elon Musk Over Twitter Stock Disclosure Case

A federal judge has declined to immediately approve a proposed $1.5 million settlement between Elon Musk and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) tied to Musks 2022 Twitter stock purchase disclosures. The...

Broadcom Eyes $35 Billion AI Chip Financing Deal With Apollo and Blackstone

Broadcom Inc. is reportedly in discussions with Apollo Global Management and Blackstone Inc. to secure around $35 billion in financing for its expanding artificial intelligence chip business, according to a Bloomberg...

Dell Stock Hits Record High After Trump Endorsement, AI Server Demand Fuels Rally

Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE: DELL) surged to an all-time high on Friday after receiving a public endorsement from President Donald Trump during a White House event. The president encouraged Americans to go out and buy...

TikTok Nears $400 Million Settlement With Trump Administration Over Child Privacy Lawsuit

TikTok and the Trump administration are reportedly close to reaching a $400 million settlement tied to allegations that the popular video-sharing platform violated U.S. child privacy laws. According to ABC News, the...