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Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

Jul 17, 2023 12:52 pm UTC| Politics

A federal Newspoll, conducted July 1215 from a sample of 1,570, gave Labor a 5545 lead after preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Newspoll figures are from The Poll...

Liberals likely to retain majority in Tasmania; Biden's ratings after 100 days

May 02, 2021 06:49 am UTC| Politics

AAP/Chris Crerar With 79% counted in Saturdays Tasmanian election, the ABC is calling 12 of the 25 Tasmanian lower house seats for the Liberals, eight for Labor, two Greens and three undecided. Vote shares were 48.7%...

Trump's ratings slightly down after Ukraine scandal as Warren surges to tie Biden in Democratic polls

Oct 12, 2019 08:37 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

About two weeks since a transcript of Donald Trumps phone conversation with the Ukrainian president was revealed, his approval with all polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is 41.6% and his disapproval is 54.0%. Trumps...

No chance of US gun control despite Las Vegas massacre; NZ left gains two seats after special votes

Oct 08, 2017 02:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

In the last decade, there have been many horrific gun crimes in the US, where at least 10 people have been murdered in the one incident. However, the National Rifle Association has successfully fought all efforts to impose...

Former FBI director James Comey very likely caused Trump's win

May 13, 2017 03:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

On Tuesday, Donald Trump dramatically sacked FBI director James Comey. There has been speculation that Comey was fired in an attempt to prevent an FBI investigation into Trumps ties to Russia. While such an...

US under Trump Series

Obamacare repeal vote shows power of US hard right

May 07, 2017 09:01 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Law

Since the passage of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, Republicans have attempted to repeal it. In March, the first attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare under President Trump failed, as both...

US under Trump Series

Anti-Trump backlash at US by-elections

Apr 12, 2017 14:44 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, a by-election was held in Kansas fourth Congressional District (CD) for election to the US House. This CD is very conservative, and voted for Donald Trump by 60-33 against Hillary Clinton at the 2016 election. At...

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Economy

Asian Technology and Chipmaking Stocks Slide as AI Spending Concerns Shake Markets

Asian technology and chipmaking stocks fell sharply on Monday as investor caution intensified over growing uncertainties surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) spending and its impact on future earnings. The sell-off...

China’s November Economic Data Signals Slowing Industrial Output and Weak Consumer Demand

Chinas economic momentum showed further signs of strain in November as key indicators pointed to slower growth in industrial output and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in consumer spending, according to official data...

Oil Prices Rebound as U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Offset Oversupply Concerns

Oil prices edged higher on Monday, recovering part of last weeks sharp decline, as rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela fueled concerns over potential supply disruptions. These worries...

Dollar Struggles as Markets Eye Key Central Bank Decisions and Global Rate Outlooks

The U.S. dollar remained under pressure on Monday, extending losses near a two-month low, while the euro and British pound held relatively steady as investors awaited a series of critical central bank decisions this week....

Asian Stocks Slide as Central Bank Decisions and Key Data Keep Investors Cautious

Asian stock markets opened the week lower as investors reduced risk exposure amid thin year-end liquidity, looming central bank decisions, and a packed schedule of delayed economic data releases. Early Monday trading saw...

Politics

Special Prosecutor Alleges Yoon Suk Yeol Sought North Korea Provocation to Justify Martial Law

A South Korean special prosecutor has accused former President Yoon Suk Yeol of attempting to provoke North Korea into an armed confrontation as part of an alleged plot to justify the declaration of martial law in December...

Supporters Gather Ahead of Verdict in Jimmy Lai’s Landmark Hong Kong National Security Trial

Supporters of Hong Kong democracy activist and media tycoon Jimmy Lai queued overnight outside the citys High Court on Monday as anticipation grew ahead of the verdict in his landmark national security trial, a case that...

Korea Zinc Plans $6.78 Billion U.S. Smelter Investment With Government Partnership

Korea Zincs board is set to convene on Monday to vote on a major overseas investment plan that could significantly strengthen the supply chain for critical minerals in the United States. According to a source familiar with...

Hong Kong Democratic Party Disbands After Member Vote Amid Security Crackdown

Hong Kongs last major opposition party, the Democratic Party, has voted to disband, marking a significant moment in the citys political history and underscoring the impact of Chinas national security crackdown on liberal...

Ukraine’s NATO Concession Unlikely to Shift Peace Talks, Experts Say

Ukraines recent offer to abandon its long-standing ambition to join NATO is unlikely to have a major impact on ongoing peace talks with Russia, according to several foreign policy and security experts. During discussions...

Science

Senate Sets December 8 Vote on Trump’s NASA Nominee Jared Isaacman

The U.S. Senate Commerce Committee announced it will vote on December 8 on President Donald Trumps renewed nomination of private astronaut and tech entrepreneur Jared Isaacman to lead NASA. Isaacman, known for his...

NASA Cuts Boeing Starliner Missions as SpaceX Pulls Ahead

NASA has significantly scaled back Boeings Starliner program after years of technical issues and delays, announcing that the next Starliner mission to the International Space Station (ISS) will fly without astronauts. The...

Blue Origin’s New Glenn Achieves Breakthrough Success With First NASA Mission

Blue Origins massive New Glenn rocket marked a major milestone as it completed its first mission for paying customers, sending two NASA satellites toward Mars and successfully landing its reusable booster at sea. The...

Cogent Biosciences Soars 120% on Breakthrough Phase 3 Results for Bezuclastinib in GIST Treatment

Cogent Biosciences (NASDAQ: COGT) shares skyrocketed over 120% after the biotech company announced groundbreaking results from its Phase 3 PEAK trial evaluating bezuclastinib in combination with sunitinib for patients with...

Trump and Merck KGaA Partner to Slash IVF Drug Costs and Expand Fertility Coverage

U.S. President Donald Trump and German pharmaceutical company Merck KGaA have announced a groundbreaking deal aimed at lowering the cost of in-vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments while boosting access to fertility care in...

Technology

iRobot Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Amid Rising Competition and Tariff Pressures

iRobot, the company behind the popular Roomba robotic vacuum cleaner, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States as it prepares to go private through an acquisition by Picea Robotics, its primary...

Nvidia Weighs Expanding H200 AI Chip Production as China Demand Surges

Nvidia is evaluating whether to expand production capacity for its powerful H200 artificial intelligence chips after demand from Chinese customers significantly exceeded current supply, according to multiple sources...

SpaceX Begins IPO Preparations as Wall Street Banks Line Up for Advisory Roles

SpaceX has reportedly begun the early stages of preparing for a potential initial public offering (IPO), marking a significant milestone for the private aerospace company founded by Elon Musk. According to a report from...

SpaceX Insider Share Sale Values Company Near $800 Billion Amid IPO Speculation

SpaceX, the aerospace company founded by Elon Musk, has reportedly authorized an insider share sale that places its valuation at approximately $800 billion, according to a Bloomberg News report published Friday. The move...

Mizuho Raises Broadcom Price Target to $450 on Surging AI Chip Demand

Mizuho Securities has raised its price target on Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO), highlighting accelerating momentum in the companys artificial intelligence business and a rapidly expanding long-term backlog. The brokerage...