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Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

Jul 17, 2023 12:52 pm UTC| Politics

A federal Newspoll, conducted July 1215 from a sample of 1,570, gave Labor a 5545 lead after preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Newspoll figures are from The Poll...

Liberals likely to retain majority in Tasmania; Biden's ratings after 100 days

May 02, 2021 06:49 am UTC| Politics

AAP/Chris Crerar With 79% counted in Saturdays Tasmanian election, the ABC is calling 12 of the 25 Tasmanian lower house seats for the Liberals, eight for Labor, two Greens and three undecided. Vote shares were 48.7%...

Trump's ratings slightly down after Ukraine scandal as Warren surges to tie Biden in Democratic polls

Oct 12, 2019 08:37 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

About two weeks since a transcript of Donald Trumps phone conversation with the Ukrainian president was revealed, his approval with all polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is 41.6% and his disapproval is 54.0%. Trumps...

No chance of US gun control despite Las Vegas massacre; NZ left gains two seats after special votes

Oct 08, 2017 02:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

In the last decade, there have been many horrific gun crimes in the US, where at least 10 people have been murdered in the one incident. However, the National Rifle Association has successfully fought all efforts to impose...

Former FBI director James Comey very likely caused Trump's win

May 13, 2017 03:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

On Tuesday, Donald Trump dramatically sacked FBI director James Comey. There has been speculation that Comey was fired in an attempt to prevent an FBI investigation into Trumps ties to Russia. While such an...

US under Trump Series

Obamacare repeal vote shows power of US hard right

May 07, 2017 09:01 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Law

Since the passage of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, Republicans have attempted to repeal it. In March, the first attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare under President Trump failed, as both...

US under Trump Series

Anti-Trump backlash at US by-elections

Apr 12, 2017 14:44 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, a by-election was held in Kansas fourth Congressional District (CD) for election to the US House. This CD is very conservative, and voted for Donald Trump by 60-33 against Hillary Clinton at the 2016 election. At...

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Economy

India’s Investment Upgrade: A Historic Milestone for the "High-Quality EM" Narrative

SP Global has raised Indias sovereign credit rating to BBB from BBB-, with a Stable outlook, indicating the agencys first upward change for the country in 18 years. This major step increases Indias long-term rating one...

Asian Markets Rally as Oil Prices Tumble and Middle East Peace Hopes Emerge

Asian stock markets posted strong gains on Wednesday, driven by a sharp decline in oil prices and growing optimism over a potential diplomatic resolution in the Middle East. The broad-based rally swept across the region,...

Australia's Inflation Eases in February but Core Pressures Persist

Australias consumer inflation dipped slightly in February, though stubborn underlying price pressures are keeping the Reserve Bank of Australia cautious about cutting interest rates anytime soon. According to the latest...

Oil Prices Plunge Over 6% as Middle East Ceasefire Hopes Ease Supply Fears

Global oil prices dropped sharply on Wednesday during Asian trading hours, with Brent crude falling below the $100 per barrel mark for the first time in recent sessions. The steep selloff came after emerging signs of a...

Currency Markets Show Caution Amid U.S.-Iran Negotiations

Global currency markets displayed muted movement during early Asian trading on Wednesday, as investors remained cautious following conflicting signals surrounding U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. President Donald Trump...

Politics

Trump's Overhaul of American History: Museums, Monuments, and Cultural Institutions

Since returning to the White House, President Donald Trump has launched a sweeping campaign to reshape how American history is presented across cultural institutions, national parks, and public monuments. Framing his...

Pakistan's Diplomatic Rise: Mediating U.S.-Iran Peace Talks

Pakistan is emerging as a key global mediator in efforts to end the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, leveraging its unique position as a trusted contact for both Washington and Tehran. This diplomatic role could elevate...

US Accelerates Taiwan Arms Deliveries Amid Rising China Threat

Taiwans Defense Minister Wellington Koo confirmed Wednesday that the United States has expressed a strong sense of urgency in bolstering Taiwans military capabilities, with active efforts underway to resolve long-standing...

Trump Administration Settles Lawsuit Barring Federal Agencies from Pressuring Social Media Censorship

The Trump administration has reached a landmark settlement that prohibits three major federal agencies from coercing social media platforms into removing or suppressing constitutionally protected speech. The agreement,...

Cuba Receives Humanitarian Aid Convoy Amid U.S. Sanctions

Cuba welcomed a long-awaited shipment of international humanitarian aid on Tuesday, as activists from the global Nuestra America Convoy successfully delivered essential supplies to the island nation despite ongoing U.S....

Science

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

SpaceX Prioritizes Moon Mission Before Mars as Starship Development Accelerates

Elon Musks SpaceX is shifting its near-term space exploration strategy, choosing to prioritize a return to the Moon before pursuing missions to Mars, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar...

NASA and SpaceX Target Crew-11 Undocking From ISS Amid Medical Concern

NASA has confirmed that the agency, in coordination with SpaceX, is targeting no earlier than 5 p.m. Eastern Time (2200 GMT) on Wednesday, January 14, for the undocking of the SpaceX Crew-11 mission from the International...

Neuralink Plans High-Volume Brain Implant Production and Fully Automated Surgery by 2026

Elon Musks brain-computer interface company Neuralink is preparing for a major expansion, announcing plans to begin high-volume production of its brain implant devices and transition to a fully automated surgical procedure...

Jared Isaacman Confirmed as NASA Administrator, Becomes 15th Leader of U.S. Space Agency

The U.S. Senate has officially confirmed billionaire private astronaut Jared Isaacman as the new NASA administrator, making him the 15th leader in the agencys history. The confirmation, which took place on Wednesday, marks...

Technology

SK Hynix Eyes Up to $14 Billion U.S. IPO to Fund AI Chip Expansion

South Korean memory chip giant SK Hynix has submitted a confidential filing for a U.S. stock market listing in 2026, with sources indicating the move could raise as much as $14 billion. The company intends to offer...

Meta Ties Executive Pay to Aggressive Stock Price Targets in Major Retention Push

Meta Platforms made a significant move this week by granting restricted stock units and stock options to several of its most senior leaders, including Chief Financial Officer Susan Li and Chief Technology Officer Andrew...

SpaceX IPO Filing Expected This Week as Valuation Could Surpass $75 Billion

Elon Musks SpaceX is reportedly moving closer to going public, with plans to submit its initial public offering prospectus to regulators as early as this week or next, according to a report by The Information citing a...

OpenAI Pulls the Plug on Sora, Ending $1 Billion Disney Partnership

OpenAI has officially shut down Sora, its AI-powered video generation tool, in a move that blindsided partners and staff alike and effectively ended a landmark deal with Walt Disney Co. The decision marks a major...

Golden Dome Missile Defense: Anduril and Palantir Join Forces on Trump's $185B Space Shield

Tech-forward defense companies Anduril Industries and Palantir Technologies are reportedly joining forces to develop critical software for the United States most ambitious missile defense initiative to date the Golden...