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Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

Jul 17, 2023 12:52 pm UTC| Politics

A federal Newspoll, conducted July 1215 from a sample of 1,570, gave Labor a 5545 lead after preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Newspoll figures are from The Poll...

Liberals likely to retain majority in Tasmania; Biden's ratings after 100 days

May 02, 2021 06:49 am UTC| Politics

AAP/Chris Crerar With 79% counted in Saturdays Tasmanian election, the ABC is calling 12 of the 25 Tasmanian lower house seats for the Liberals, eight for Labor, two Greens and three undecided. Vote shares were 48.7%...

Trump's ratings slightly down after Ukraine scandal as Warren surges to tie Biden in Democratic polls

Oct 12, 2019 08:37 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

About two weeks since a transcript of Donald Trumps phone conversation with the Ukrainian president was revealed, his approval with all polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is 41.6% and his disapproval is 54.0%. Trumps...

No chance of US gun control despite Las Vegas massacre; NZ left gains two seats after special votes

Oct 08, 2017 02:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

In the last decade, there have been many horrific gun crimes in the US, where at least 10 people have been murdered in the one incident. However, the National Rifle Association has successfully fought all efforts to impose...

Former FBI director James Comey very likely caused Trump's win

May 13, 2017 03:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

On Tuesday, Donald Trump dramatically sacked FBI director James Comey. There has been speculation that Comey was fired in an attempt to prevent an FBI investigation into Trumps ties to Russia. While such an...

US under Trump Series

Obamacare repeal vote shows power of US hard right

May 07, 2017 09:01 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Law

Since the passage of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, Republicans have attempted to repeal it. In March, the first attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare under President Trump failed, as both...

US under Trump Series

Anti-Trump backlash at US by-elections

Apr 12, 2017 14:44 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, a by-election was held in Kansas fourth Congressional District (CD) for election to the US House. This CD is very conservative, and voted for Donald Trump by 60-33 against Hillary Clinton at the 2016 election. At...

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Economy

Russian LNG Shadow Fleet Expands Amid Arctic LNG 2 Sanctions

Russia is intensifying efforts to bypass Western energy sanctions after a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker operating under a newly adopted Russian flag was spotted loading fuel linked to the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2...

S&P 500, Nasdaq Hit Record Highs as AI Stocks Rally and Strong Jobs Data Boost Confidence

The SP 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs on Friday as investors poured into AI-related stocks and welcomed stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data, reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the American economy....

Dollar Slips as Strong U.S. Jobs Data Reduces Fed Rate Cut Expectations

The U.S. dollar weakened on Friday after stronger-than-expected April jobs data reduced speculation about potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Investor sentiment also improved after President Donald Trump stated...

European Stocks Fall as US-Iran Conflict Rekindles Energy Supply Fears

European stock markets closed lower on Friday as renewed military tensions between the United States and Iran rattled investor confidence and intensified concerns about global energy supplies. The escalating conflict...

Gold Prices Rise as Weaker Dollar and Iran Ceasefire Hopes Boost Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices climbed on Friday and were set for a strong weekly gain as the U.S. dollar weakened following the latest U.S. jobs report. Investors also turned to safe-haven assets amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East and...

Politics

Israel’s Secret Iraq Base Allegedly Supported Iran Air Campaign, WSJ Reports

Israel reportedly established a covert military outpost deep in the Iraqi desert to support its recent air campaign against Iran, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar with the operation,...

Senate Stablecoin Bill Sparks Clash Between Banks and Crypto Industry

A major fight over U.S. crypto regulation is heating up as lawmakers prepare to advance the CLARITY Act, a proposed bill designed to create a clear regulatory framework for digital assets and stablecoins. The legislation...

Trump-Xi Beijing Summit to Focus on Trade, Taiwan, and Boeing Deal

U.S. President Donald Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing from May 14 to May 15, marking the first visit by an American president to the Chinese capital in nearly ten years. According to Reuters,...

Trump Reportedly Approves Plan to Remove FDA Commissioner Marty Makary Amid Growing Controversies

President Donald Trump has reportedly approved a plan to remove U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Marty Makary, according to sources familiar with discussions inside the White House. While officials say...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

Science

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

Technology

AI-Driven Inflation Raises U.S. Consumer Prices, Goldman Sachs Says

Artificial intelligence is starting to increase U.S. consumer prices through rising costs in electronics, software, and electricity, according to a new Goldman Sachs report. The investment bank said AI-related inflation...

Judge Delays SEC Settlement With Elon Musk Over Twitter Stock Disclosure Case

A federal judge has declined to immediately approve a proposed $1.5 million settlement between Elon Musk and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) tied to Musks 2022 Twitter stock purchase disclosures. The...

Broadcom Eyes $35 Billion AI Chip Financing Deal With Apollo and Blackstone

Broadcom Inc. is reportedly in discussions with Apollo Global Management and Blackstone Inc. to secure around $35 billion in financing for its expanding artificial intelligence chip business, according to a Bloomberg...

Dell Stock Hits Record High After Trump Endorsement, AI Server Demand Fuels Rally

Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE: DELL) surged to an all-time high on Friday after receiving a public endorsement from President Donald Trump during a White House event. The president encouraged Americans to go out and buy...

TikTok Nears $400 Million Settlement With Trump Administration Over Child Privacy Lawsuit

TikTok and the Trump administration are reportedly close to reaching a $400 million settlement tied to allegations that the popular video-sharing platform violated U.S. child privacy laws. According to ABC News, the...