Q3 to test policy makers in Japan

Aug 02, 2015 06:33 am UTC| Commentary

Japanese policy makers may worry about a falling core CPI and the risk of a technical recession in Q3. We believe any attempts to stimulate the economy would be more likely to revolve around fiscal policy than monetary...

Monetary policy divergence starts to widen

Aug 02, 2015 06:15 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

With Fed/BOE hiking and ECB/BOJ easing,there isan equally marked divergence in monetary policy settings among EM central banks as well with Asia on an easing bias and EMEA and Latin America on a neutral or tightening...

Fed goes slightly more hawkish

Aug 01, 2015 06:52 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The FOMC statement was somewhat more hawkish because of the following points. It did not change inflation guidance despite materially lower commodity prices since the June FOMC. That said, gone is reference to how...

Fed looking for only 'some' more improvement

Aug 01, 2015 06:23 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The recent U.S. dollar strength is largely a function of Fed policy expectations. Liftoff had previously been pushed out into 2016 due to the U.S. economy stumbling at the start of the year. But, improving economic...

Canadian economic slump to ease in latter half of 2015

Jul 31, 2015 16:01 pm UTC| Commentary

Economic growth in Canada has been disappointing in the first half of the year. This mornings release of May 2015 real GDP by industry helped to firm up this view. And it is this below-expectations performance of the...

University of Michigan consumer sentiment nearly unchanged in late July

Jul 31, 2015 15:48 pm UTC| Commentary

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was nearly unchanged in the July final estimate from the preliminary mid-month print. The index ticked down two-tenths, to 93.1, bringing the July final estimate three...

Chicago PMI makes up lost ground in July

Jul 31, 2015 15:25 pm UTC| Commentary

The Chicago PMI rose to 54.7 in July, printing above 51.0 and consensus 50.8 expectations. The strongest reading for the headline index since January was driven by surges in production 61.8, previous- 49.8 and new orders...