Crucial H2 for Sweden CPI

Aug 10, 2015 09:00 am UTC| Commentary

A cursory glance at a few of Swedens macro-fundamental indicators would suggest an economy that is humming along healthily and in no need of monetary stimulus. GDP in Q2 expanded at a healthy clip of 0.7% q/q (in line with...

Swiss inflation to be near 0 by 2016

Aug 10, 2015 08:56 am UTC| Commentary

Over a one-year horizon, the outlook for Swiss inflation remains very weak. By 2016, Switzerland is expected to be the only G10 country with inflation still hugging zero."The SNB does not expect inflation to turn positive...

CHF, growth with no inflation in near term

Aug 10, 2015 08:53 am UTC| Commentary

There is now hard evidence of something we have previously heard anecdotally, since January, interest in CHF has dropped off sharply. Average daily turnover in CHF showed a noticeable fall in the latest semiannual FX...

GBP higher, but risks remain

Aug 10, 2015 08:46 am UTC| Commentary

Longer-term, there are two key risks for GBP, the UKs unsustainable current account deficit (6.2% of GDP) and the EU referendum, promised for end-2017 at the latest.Both are manageable, however. The current account deficit...

South African Rand: 1-3 Month Outlook

Aug 10, 2015 08:20 am UTC| Commentary

SARB opted to hike its key reference rate by 25bp to 6% on July 23. The market is pricing at least one more hike before the end of 2015. While we do believe USD/ZAR may drift higher towards 12.90 in the very near term and...

BOE tightening cycle likely to start in November

Aug 10, 2015 07:58 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Markets clearly perceive the cyclical positions of the US and UK to be similar and a gentle increase in US short rate expectations has been accompanied by rising expectations that the MPC cold start to unwind stimulus in...

Higher US rates to be another big leg down to JPY in long term

Aug 10, 2015 07:56 am UTC| Commentary

Japans domestic public sector flows drove the move from 100 to the 120s in 2014. Prior to that, the overseas sector fuelled the move from 80 to 100.The sector which is expected to drive the third leg of JPY selling has so...