Rise in UK core inflation due to timing effects

Aug 18, 2015 10:26 am UTC| Commentary

UK core CPI rebounded to +1.2% y/y in July, up 0.3pp versus June. The ONS analysis of the data highlighted clothing prices as a key driver, as clothing prices were less weak m/m in July 2015 than a year ago. This reflects...

Conab and Unica with different views on Brazilian sugar production

Aug 18, 2015 10:26 am UTC| Commentary

The raw sugar price is still hovering close to the seven-year low it hit last Monday, closing yesterday at 10.63 US cents per pound in the contract with an October maturity date. The latest estimate from the Brazilian...

Short-covering supports price recovery in gold

Aug 18, 2015 10:10 am UTC| Commentary

Gold is continuing to hold its own at close to the $1,120 per troy ounce mark. Unexpectedly weak US economic data drove gold temporarily above this mark yesterday because this reduced the rate hike expectations again for...

Euro area consumer confidence to remain stable in August

Aug 18, 2015 10:10 am UTC| Commentary

Euro area consumer confidence index data for August to be released on 21st August. The economys consumer confidence is rising dramatically since 2013, reaching historically high levels.Since the beginning of the year, it...

Estimating Chinese Yuan Reminbi pass-through to US import prices and activity

Aug 18, 2015 10:02 am UTC| Commentary

The effect of CNY depreciation on US inflation depends on the magnitude of the CNY move and the policy reaction of other Asian economies. For this exercise, Barclays assumes that the CNY depreciates 10% against the US...

ECB to lower inflation path in September

Aug 18, 2015 09:39 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The minutes of the July ECB meeting signaled cautious optimism that ECB QE was helping to improve confidence and expand credit. But they also emphasized that downside risks were still elevated, given a weak inflation...

Better US consumption cautious Fed

Aug 18, 2015 09:29 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Away from China, solid retail sales mean that Q2 real consumption in the US is now tracking 3.1%, with momentum continuing into Q3. Meanwhile, the Fed has been careful not to reveal its intentions regarding a September...