December more likely for Fed lift-off than October

Sep 18, 2015 05:27 am UTC| Commentary

The key factor that held the Fed back is China, or specifically the possibility of a more abrupt slowdown in China which could then spill over to the global economy and financial markets. The Fed wants to see this question...

Greece toward a pro-programme coalition?

Sep 18, 2015 05:24 am UTC| Commentary

The snap general elections will be the third national ballot in 2015 in Greece, after the referendum and the general elections in January. The outcome appears as uncertain as ever. The latest polls show that Syrizas...

Commodity-dependent Norway's Norges Bank to cut rates?

Sep 18, 2015 05:22 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Norges Bank last cut on June 18th and began cutting last December for a cumulative 50bps move to 1%. Economists are divided on whether another cut may be delivered now. That sounds familiar. Anyway, crude oil,...

Another Greece election ahead?

Sep 18, 2015 05:20 am UTC| Commentary

The issue is whether the resulting government will be able to effectively implement the bail-out agreement or, worse yet, whether this election settlesanything or another election lies ahead. It probably continues to...

Will Greece’s Election Settle Anything?

Sep 18, 2015 05:18 am UTC| Commentary

Three main risks will overhang European markets next week, Greek election results into the Monday market open, testimony by ECB President Mario Draghi on Wednesday, and European purchasing manager indices as a guide to...

Discrepancy between market and Fed’s rate path reflects difference in inflation outlook

Sep 18, 2015 05:02 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

In accordance with changes in the economic outlook, the updated interest rates projections show that the leadership, as proxied by the average of the 4-6 dots, modestly lowered the pace of the hiking cycle. The fed...

Probability of Fed hiking in October looks high

Sep 18, 2015 04:59 am UTC| Commentary

The market is pricing in a roughly 20% probability of the Fed hiking at the October meeting (Nov-Sep FF spread of 4bp) a and roughly 40% likelihood of the Fed hiking at the December meeting (Jan-Nov FF spread of 8bp) for a...