Fed Hike Aftermath Series

No signs of relief to Fed wondering if they might have jumped the gun in December

Jan 04, 2016 02:55 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks Economy

The data surely arent bringing sighs of relief to any Fed officials wondering if they might have jumped the gun in December. 3Q GDP growth had already dropped to 2% (QoQ, saar) before they pulled the trigger and the higher...

Indonesia's CPI inflation has eased but does not necessarily mean lower interest rates

Jan 04, 2016 02:45 am UTC| Commentary

Indonesias CPI inflation is likely to come in at 3.3% (YoY) in December. It was highly distorted by base effects, due to the subsidized fuel price hike back in Dec14. Going forward, CPI inflation may inch gradually higher...

Singapore economy ended 2015 on a high note

Jan 04, 2016 02:33 am UTC| Commentary Economy

The economy ended 2015 on a high note. GDP growth in 4Q15 was stronger than expected. Based on the advance GDP estimates released today, the economy is projected to have expanded by 5.7% QoQ saar in 4Q1. This translated...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Growth outlook remains a concern in Taiwan

Jan 04, 2016 02:15 am UTC| Commentary

The trade and inflation data for Dec15 are due this week. Exports are expected to contract for the 11th month in a row, by -13% (YoY). CPI growth should stay marginally positive, at 0.3%. Global demand remains weak and the...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Deeper slump in South Korea's electronics exports accentuates drop in December shipments

Jan 04, 2016 01:12 am UTC| Commentary Economy

Exports fell by 13.8% y/y in December, much weaker than expected (consensus: -11.7%), following a one-time vessel delivery lift in November (Nov: -4.8% y/y; Oct: -16.0%). The release marked the weakest annual export...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

MXN and BRL: Oil, inflation and politics to drive price action

Jan 04, 2016 00:33 am UTC| Commentary Politics

Although MXN is somewhat cheap compared with its long-term fair value, headwinds to global demand, coupled with the consequences of lower oil prices, justify the short-term undervaluation. The risks are tilted to further...

EMEA: Near-term inflationary dynamics will likely set the tone for the TRY

Jan 03, 2016 23:56 pm UTC| Commentary

In Turkey, the disinflationary impetus from Russian sanctions is expected to limit the uptick in December inflation (Monday, consensus: 8.50%). Nonetheless, the near-term inflation outlook remains challenging. Services...