The yuan is expected to remain relatively steady in the months ahead, while other EM Asian currencies could see continued portfolio inflows as long as US political turmoil stabilises. In addition, China’s onshore yuan liquidity conditions will likely turn more volatile and tighten next month by taking into account the central bank’s MPA assessment approaching the half-year end.
China’s economic growth may face more headwinds in the second half, sparking risk aversion at some point late this year. Moreover, S&P Global Ratings has changed its outlook for China to negative since March 31, 2016. It would dampen market sentiment should S&P decide to follow suit in the near-term. S&P currently rates China one notch above Moody's and Fitch.
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday downgraded China's long-term local currency and foreign currency issuer ratings by one notch to A1 from Aa3 on concerns over a slowing economy and growing debt. It is the first time that Moody's has cut its investors ratings on Chinese sovereign debt since November 1989.
Earlier on April 9, 2013, Fitch Ratings downgraded China’s long-term local currency rating to A+ from AA-, the first sovereign rating cut since 1999. Moody’s also changed its outlook on China to stable from negative after revising the outlook to negative from stable in March 2016.
Meanwhile, Moody’s said in a statement that structural reforms effectively stemming the rise in leverage without an increase in risks in the banking and shadow banking sectors could be positive for China's credit profile and rating, while warning that leverage continuing to rise faster and to involve significant misallocation of capital would spark negative rating pressure.
In addition, China's finance ministry said the downgrade by Moody’s was based on an "inappropriate method" and the rating agency was exaggerating the mainland's economic difficulties while underestimating the government’s reform efforts.
"We saw knee-jerk declines in China’s stocks and offshore CNH, but the overall impact was limited. China’s 5Y USD CDS premium was up 1.5 bp only. China will continue the process of financial deleveraging while preventing systemic financial risks as the nation has pledged to stick to the basic tone of “seeking progress while maintaining stability” this year," Scotiabank commented in its latest research report.


Indonesia Stocks Face Fragile Sentiment After MSCI Warning and Market Rout
U.S.–Venezuela Relations Show Signs of Thaw as Top Envoy Visits Caracas
Philippine Economy Slows in Late 2025, Raising Expectations of Further Rate Cuts
Canada’s Trade Deficit Jumps in November as Exports Slide and Firms Diversify Away From U.S.
Wall Street Slips as Tech Stocks Slide on AI Spending Fears and Earnings Concerns
U.S. Dollar Slides for Second Week as Tariff Threats and Iran Tensions Shake Markets
Russia Stocks End Flat as MOEX Closes Unchanged Amid Mixed Global Signals
Oil Prices Hit Four-Month High as Geopolitical Risks and Supply Disruptions Intensify
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed
FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022
U.S. and El Salvador Sign Landmark Critical Minerals Agreement to Boost Investment and Trade
Oil Prices Surge Toward Biggest Monthly Gains in Years Amid Middle East Tensions




