Historically, tax receipts have been a genuine indicator of economic health and currently, the growths in tax receipts have been showing some alarming signs. This chart is from St. Louis Fed’s economic dashboard and it shows that there was a dip below zero last year, in the first quarter. It recovered subsequently in the second quarter and in the third quarter, it grew by 2.96 percent.

So, why worry?

Since 1948, there have been only 15 instances, where the growth in tax receipts declined below zero and in 11 of such cases there were recessions, either going on or followed. In addition to that, this is not just one data; several data sets including this tax receipts growth are calling to remain cautious over a looming recession.