Vietnam’s U.S. Exports Surge, Raising Tariff Risks

Vietnam's exports to the U.S. accounted for 30% of its GDP in 2023, the highest share among America’s major trade partners, making the country highly vulnerable to potential U.S. tariffs.

Since the U.S.-China trade war began in 2018, Vietnam has attracted foreign investment as companies seek alternatives to China. Major firms, including Samsung, Foxconn, Apple, Intel, and Nike, have expanded manufacturing operations there, strengthening Vietnam’s role in global supply chains. According to Vietnamese customs data, 29% of the nation’s exports now go to the U.S.

Vietnam exported $142.4 billion worth of goods to the U.S. last year, ranking sixth among America’s top suppliers after Mexico, China, Canada, Germany, and Japan. Despite exporting less than Mexico, its reliance on the U.S. market surpasses that of other trade partners, including China (2.5% of GDP) and Japan (3.7%).

However, this rapid export growth has created trade imbalances, making Vietnam a target for U.S. tariff scrutiny. It held the fourth-largest trade surplus with the U.S. in 2023, behind China, the EU, and Mexico. With a higher tariff rate than the U.S., VAT levies, and non-trade barriers, Vietnam meets key criteria for tariff application under White House policies. Additionally, the country remains on the U.S. watchlist for potential currency manipulation.

As U.S. officials prepare global reciprocal tariff measures by April, Vietnam’s heavy dependence on American trade poses a significant economic risk. The potential impact of new tariffs could disrupt its booming export-driven economy, affecting both local industries and multinational corporations relying on Vietnam as a key manufacturing hub.