USMCA Review Talks Set to Begin in Q4 Amid Bilateral Trade Tensions

Mexico expects formal negotiations on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to begin in late September or early October, according to Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard. The trilateral trade pact, which replaced NAFTA in 2020 during President Donald Trump’s first term, mandates a joint review every six years.

Speaking at a banking event, Ebrard confirmed, “The formal start is expected at the end of September, the first week of October, for evaluation.” He had previously projected the review would start in the second half of 2025, signaling Mexico’s readiness to begin ahead of schedule.

Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney adopted a more cautious approach, emphasizing the need to resolve bilateral trade issues with the United States before engaging in a full-scale USMCA review. “We want to make direct progress on those issues before we have the broader review of USMCA,” Carney told CBC.

Despite the USMCA being in effect, the U.S. under Trump has enforced tariffs on certain Canadian and Mexican imports. Canadian officials have been in talks with Washington to remove these tariffs and address concerns surrounding fentanyl trafficking—an issue Trump continues to highlight.

The review is expected to become a key focal point in North American trade policy, especially with Trump urging an early renegotiation of the agreement. He has repeatedly stated the U.S. should secure more favorable trade terms with its partners.

As economic leaders from Mexico and Canada prepare for talks, the outcome of this review could reshape trade dynamics across North America, with significant implications for regional supply chains, tariffs, and diplomatic relations. All eyes are now on Q4 as USMCA’s first major milestone approaches.