U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty Keeps Oil Prices Under Pressure

Oil prices dipped modestly during Asian trading on Thursday as investors closely monitored diplomatic developments between the United States and Iran ahead of a critical ceasefire deadline set for April 21. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 0.4% to $90.90 per barrel at around 19:42 ET, reflecting ongoing market caution.

Traders remained on edge as peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran showed limited progress following weekend talks. President Donald Trump expressed cautious optimism, suggesting that additional discussions could occur within days and that a resolution to the conflict might be within reach. However, uncertainty persists as the U.S. simultaneously confirmed a full naval blockade against Iran — a move analysts say could complicate diplomatic efforts.

Some relief came from reports indicating that several ships and oil tankers successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz during the week. Additionally, Reuters reported that Iran may be open to permitting free passage on the Omani side of the strait as part of a potential peace agreement — a development that could ease supply concerns if confirmed.

Despite a fragile ceasefire holding as of early Thursday, with no new military strikes reported since late last week, markets remained cautious. News that the U.S. was considering deploying over 10,000 additional troops to the region raised fresh fears of escalation.

Crude oil had surged to $120 per barrel following the outbreak of hostilities in late February, but prices have since pulled back amid emergency reserve releases by major economies. Both the International Energy Agency and OPEC flagged softer global demand outlooks tied to war-related disruptions.

Attention also turned to upcoming Chinese economic growth data, with markets watching for any demand-side impact on the world's largest oil importer. The Strait of Hormuz — largely blocked since the conflict began — remains central to any lasting ceasefire framework, with Washington insisting on its full reopening as a non-negotiable condition.