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The U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations, showing remarkable resilience under President Donald Trump’s renewed administration. According to Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics, the U.S. expanded by an estimated 0.9% quarter on quarter—nearly 4% annualized—in Q3 2025. In stark contrast, eurozone growth lagged at a mere 0.1–0.2% over the same period.
Earlier forecasts predicted that Trump’s trade barriers, tighter immigration policies, and policy volatility would hinder U.S. growth, while Europe was expected to rebound through fiscal expansion in Germany. However, Shearing notes that optimism about Europe’s recovery was misplaced, with Berlin’s fiscal stimulus delayed until late 2026 and much of its spending offset by rising pension and healthcare costs.
Europe’s stagnation is now seen as structural rather than cyclical. Germany’s industrial base continues to contract following the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine, and China’s transition from a key export market to a direct competitor has deepened challenges. France, meanwhile, faces fiscal tightening pressures, further restricting regional flexibility.
Despite ongoing trade tensions, tariffs, and even a government shutdown, the U.S. economy has maintained momentum. Headline inflation holds steady around 3%, while productivity in the non-financial corporate sector has surged roughly 3.5% year on year. This improvement is fueled by a sharp rise in investment—technology hardware spending is up nearly 20% and software investment by 10%.
Shearing attributes this productivity boom to artificial intelligence (AI) adoption and digital transformation, which are giving the U.S. a unique competitive edge. Capital Economics projects business investment to grow 4.7% in 2026 and 5.2% in 2027, reinforcing America’s lead in tech-driven growth.
As Europe remains sluggish, the U.S. stands as a global outlier—its innovation, AI readiness, and productivity gains continuing to power economic expansion despite policy headwinds.
