Samsung Forecasts Strong Q4 Profit on AI-Driven Memory Chip Boom

Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (KS:005930) surprised markets by forecasting a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter operating profit, driven by surging global demand for memory chips fueled by artificial intelligence. The South Korean technology giant, the world’s largest memory chip maker, said it expects operating profit to reach 20 trillion won ($13.82 billion) for the October–December period, comfortably beating the Reuters/LSEG consensus estimate of 18 trillion won.

The forecast marks a dramatic turnaround from the same quarter a year earlier, when Samsung reported an operating profit of just 6.49 trillion won. Sales are also projected to climb sharply, reaching approximately 93 trillion won in the fourth quarter, compared with 75.79 trillion won a year ago. This robust performance underscores the strength of the global semiconductor cycle as AI-related demand accelerates.

Samsung’s earnings outlook has been largely powered by rapidly rising memory chip prices. According to Counterpoint Research, memory prices surged by an estimated 40% to 50% in the fourth quarter, as AI companies rushed to secure supplies, triggering a global shortage. The research firm expects prices to rise by a further 40% to 50% in the first quarter of 2026, suggesting continued momentum for major chipmakers.

The company has previously warned about an impending memory supply crunch and has signaled a strategic shift toward higher-margin products. This includes advanced high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips that are critical for AI servers and data centers. Samsung is reportedly close to finalizing a supply deal with NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and has already secured a major agreement with OpenAI, reinforcing its position in the fast-growing AI semiconductor market.

However, not all of Samsung’s businesses are benefiting equally. While the chip division is set to gain from AI demand, the smartphone and consumer electronics segment may face headwinds. Co-CEO TM Roh recently cautioned that rising component costs due to chip shortages could push up prices for mobile devices and other electronics, potentially dampening demand.

Samsung will release its full fourth-quarter earnings report later in January. Investor sentiment has remained upbeat, with Samsung shares rising 1.7% on Thursday and briefly hitting a record high. Rival SK Hynix Inc (KS:000660) also surged more than 5%, helping lift South Korea’s KOSPI index by over 1%, as optimism around memory chip prices continues to build.