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Far-right candidate George Simion is expected to win Romania’s May 18 presidential run-off against centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, according to a Verifield poll. The survey, conducted on May 6 with 944 respondents and a 3.19% margin of error, shows Simion securing 54.8% of votes versus Dan’s 45.2%. However, nearly one-third of voters remain undecided or plan to abstain.
Simion, 38, surged ahead in the first round on May 4 with 41% of the vote, triggering the resignation of leftist Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu and the collapse of the pro-Western coalition. Dan, running independently, garnered 21%, while centrist Crin Antonescu and ex-PM Victor Ponta, now a nationalist, trailed behind.
A vocal eurosceptic aligned with Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” ideology, Simion opposes military aid to Ukraine and criticizes the EU’s leadership. Analysts warn his victory could isolate Romania, deter foreign investment, and destabilize NATO’s eastern front, where Romania is key to Ukraine support logistics.
Dan, 55, campaigns on anti-corruption and backs Romania’s EU and NATO commitments. In a recent debate, both candidates criticized the political elite but clashed on solutions. Simion condemned globalist “Brussels yes-men” and proposed slashing 500,000 public sector jobs without detailing deficit-reduction plans. Dan advocated structural reforms and utilizing EU funds to address Romania’s soaring budget deficit—the largest in the EU.
Following Simion’s first-round win, the Romanian leu fell nearly 3% against the euro, and 10-year bond yields jumped 60 basis points, reflecting investor concern. The outcome of the run-off could reshape Romania’s domestic and international policies at a critical time for regional security and EU relations.
