RBNZ Rate Cut Intensifies NZD/JPY Bears; Technical Setup Points to 84.00

The pair lost its shine after the RBNZ monetary policy. The intraday trend remains bearish as long as the resistance at 87.70 holds. It hits an intraday low of 85.85 and is currently trading around 85.94. The overall bearish trend is intact as long as the resistance at 89.20 holds.

Following a split 4–2 Monetary Policy Committee vote weighing persistent, food-driven inflation against a slowing economy, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced the Official Cash Rate by 25 bp to 3.00 %, thereby extending a year-long 250 bp easing cycle; the Bank maintained an easing bias, predicting inflation back to the 2 % midpoint by early 2026 and signalling data-dependent scope for more cuts, a stance already priced in by markets as experts discuss whether the OCR will trough at 2.75 % or 2.50 %, with Governor Christian Hawkesby scheduled to provide specifics later today.

Technicals-

The pair is trading below the 34 and 55 EMA, as well as the 200 EMA, on the 4-hour chart.

The near-term resistance is around 86.45, a breach above targets 86.81/87.70.  The immediate support is at 85.80; any violation below will drag the pair to 85.10/84.06.

Indicator ( 4-hour chart)

CCI (50)-  Bearish

Average directional movement Index- Bearish. All indicators confirm a bearish trend.

It is good to sell on rallies around 86.48-50  with SL around 87.70 for TP of 84.