RBI Holds Rates Steady: USDINR Reacts as 'Wait and Watch' Policy Takes Center Stage

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to keep its key policy repo rate unchanged at 5.5% on August 6, 2025, with the Monetary Policy Committee maintaining a "neutral" stance. This decision follows significant rate cuts totaling 100 basis points that were implemented earlier in 2025. The pause was largely anticipated by economists given the substantial easing already implemented.

Key takeaways from the policy announcement include a revised inflation projection for FY26 down to 3.1%, while FY27 inflation is expected to rise to 4.9% due to persistent core inflation and wage pressures. The RBI maintained its GDP growth forecast for FY26 at 6.5%, citing resilient domestic consumption and government spending despite external headwinds like new US tariffs. The central bank emphasized a "wait and watch" approach, indicating that future rate adjustments will be strictly data-dependent, contingent on evolving economic conditions, festive demand, agricultural output, and global developments.

USDINR pared some of  its gains after RBI kepts its rates unchanged. It hits  an intraday low of 87.58 and is currently trading around 87.73

.

Technicals-

Major resistance- 88,90

Near-term support - 87

Minor support-  84.75, 83.75

Trend reversal level- 83