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With Parliament set to be dissolved from this Wednesday, the prospect of further progress being made on Brexit in the near term is remote, according to the latest report from Lloyds Bank. The revised Withdrawal Agreement Bill had passed its second reading by MPs last week, but it is now on hold until after the general election on December 12.
According to pollsters, the election result is even more unpredictable than usual. While the Tory’s have a lead in the latest opinion polls, it is not certain whether this will translate into an overall majority.
The more immediate focus will be on the election of a new speaker of the House of Commons today, following the stepping down of John Bercow. The bookies favourite to replace him is Sir Lindsay Hoyle.
On the data front, the release of manufacturing surveys from a number of European countries are expected to provide a reminder of the effects that Brexit and global trade tensions are having on the sector, the report added.
For Germany, France and the Eurozone aggregate these are final outturns, and not expected to be revised from the preliminary releases. For Italy and Spain, the expectation is for outturns to remain sub-50.
The UK focus is limited to the construction PMI for October, which is expected to see the headline balance stay below the key 50 level. Meanwhile, in the US, the September factory orders is unlikely to attract much attention, particularly as durable goods data have already been released, Lloyds Bank further noted in the report.
New ECB President, Christine Lagarde is due to speak in Berlin this evening (18:00 GMT). However, the event does not appear an appropriate place for Ms Lagarde to air her views on monetary policy; given that she is delivering a laudation on Germany’s longest serving MP, Mr Shauble.
