Polish economy likely to grow moderately in 2016

With a stable growth momentum seen this year, Poland is on track to achieve a growth rate of around 3.5% in 2016. The economy's growth is seen driven by domestic demand, while high growth rates of private consumption are seen supported by higher employment, relatively high wage growth and negative inflation during 2016. With investment activity gaining momentum, capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector is closing in on the pre-crisis highs, however, backed by EU funds for continuous growth in construction.

Bank lending has been an uncertainty to investment outlook as new government's introduction of a bank tax, which will be 0.0366% of their assets excluding government bonds per month, further reducing the banks liquidity. However, it is expected to generate 5.5bn government revenues in 2016.

"We see some upside risks to exports during the forecast horizon as global growth picks up speed" - Nordea Markets