Barclay, the British multinational banking and financial services company, has laid out possible high sigma/black swan events that may take place in 2017 and make a major impact in the commodities’ market. The whole list of events you can see in the chart, however, we would like to point out several of them, which may not be a black swan at all and could very much be happening. The following events we at FxWirePro feel are very much likely to happen -

• ‘Venezuela defaults’ is a very likely one, if the oil price fails to improve or even slide from the current rate of $53 per barrel.
• ‘Major downturn in a major commodity consuming nation’ – a very likely scenario in China.
• ‘Escalation of trade war with China’ – very likely under Trump administration
• ‘Broader trade war between US/Mexico impacting natural gas exports to Mexico’ – first part already happening
• ‘China deploys rig in disputed South China Sea’ – very much likely scenario. They already have militarized artificial islands.