Pakistan’s Inflation Slows to 9.6% in August, First Single-Digit Rate in Nearly 3 Years

Pakistan’s annual inflation rate fell to 9.6% in August, marking the first single-digit reading in almost three years. The decline comes amid efforts to stabilize the economy, including a $7 billion IMF loan program and recent interest rate cuts by the central bank.

Pakistan Sees Inflation Ease Amid IMF Loan Program, But Economic Concerns Persist for Many Citizens

The statistics agency announced on September 2 that Pakistan's annual consumer price inflation rate decelerated to 9.6% in August, the first single-digit reading in nearly three years.

Last month, Pakistan agreed to a $7 billion loan program with the International Monetary Fund that includes stringent measures, including increased taxes on agricultural incomes and electricity prices, per Reuters.

Poor and middle-class Pakistanis have expressed concern regarding the potential for such actions. However, despite starting from a high point, inflation has begun to decline.

The inflation figure for September 2 was consistent with the finance ministry's projections of 9.5-10.5% in August, which were released on August 30. It anticipates additional declines in September.

The annual CPI figures for Pakistan in August decreased from 27.4% last year to 11.1% in July. In a statement, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported that the monthly inflation rate was 0.4%.

"Inflation is falling because the currency has remained stable over the past 12 months," Adnan Sami Sheikh, assistant vice president of research at Pak-Kuwait Investment Company, said.

He also stated that the rupee had appreciated by 9% to 10% against the dollar in the previous year, influenced by Pakistan's efforts to limit demand for the dollar through import controls, high interest rates, and other measures.

Pakistan’s Central Bank Cuts Rates to 19.5%, Aims for Stable Inflation and Economic Recovery

Pakistan's central bank has reduced rates from a historic high of 22% to 19.5% in two consecutive meetings. On September 12, it will convene once more to evaluate monetary policy.

The ministry's monthly report stated that the most recent interest rate reduction would "maintain inflationary expectations at a stable level and will facilitate the sustainable economic recovery in FY2025."

In an interview with Reuters this week, Jameel Ahmed, the chief executive of the central bank, stated that the recent interest rate cuts in Pakistan have had the desired effect. He noted that inflation has continued decelerating, and the current account has remained controlled despite the cuts.

"Even though interest rates are expected to come down over the medium term, it is unlikely that demand would return to earlier levels," Sheikh said, citing rises in electricity and fuel prices.

"This puts the government back in the Catch 22 situation, whereby stimulating growth also stimulates balance of payment crisis," he added.